EUR/USD Analysis Forecast, May 18, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast):

The EUR/USD fell 50 points to trade at 1.1359 with little European data today traders are waiting for a slew of US data due in a few hours.  US economic data has been stabilizing relative to consensus forecasts since late March following a period of steep weakening set off in January. If this year’s downturn proves to be as similar to last year’s first-quarter slump as it seems to be, expectations that the Federal Reserve may yet stick with its original timeline and raise rates mid-year could re-emerge.

The single currency climbed on news that growth in the Eurozone strengthened to 0.4 percent in the first quarter, from 0.3 percent in the last three months of 2014. Some of that momentum came after the European Central Bank launched a massive bond-buying program in March to fight tepid growth and deflationary risks in the currency bloc.

The euro fell below $1.14 on Friday as a recent spike in German Bund yields stalled, but the single currency was still on track for its fifth straight week of gains.

Traders said speculators have been trimming short positions in the euro this week and the trend was likely to offer the currency support at lower levels. On the other hand, the dollar index held steady near four-month lows as worries about the pace of recovery in the United States cast doubts over when the Federal Reserve would start raising interest rates.

That low was hit around the time the European Central Bank embarked on its one-trillion euro bond-buying program and to which President Mario Draghi reiterated his commitment.

“Draghi reaffirmed his commitment to QE yesterday and we think the corrective course for the euro has run its course,” said Manuel Oliveri FX strategist at Credit Agricole. “There isn’t much of an upside left.”

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.


Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  CHF PPI (MoM) (Apr) -2.1% -0.1% 0.2%
  USD NY Empire State Manufacturing   5.00 -1.19  
  USD Industrial Production (MoM)   0.1% -0.6%  
  USD Michigan Consumer   88.6 88.8  

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for EUR/USD in forex trading:

Monday, May 18, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.3%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.7%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May


EUR/USD technical analysis forecast


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