EUR/USD Analysis Forecast, May 19, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast for 19 May):

The EUR/USD dipped 49 points and continues in the red at 1.14 even. The dollar climbed against most peers, snapping a four day losing streak, while US equity-index futures signaled a retreat from Friday’s record close. Bonds fell in Italy and Spain, while silver and gold advanced. The euro slid 0.4% versus the greenback. European Union leaders meet in Riga from May 21, amid few signs of progress in talks between Greece and its creditors. An International Monetary Fund memo dated May 14 said Greece won’t be able to make an IMF payment on June 5 unless an accord is reached with partners, the UK’s Channel 4 news reported on Saturday.

A Bloomberg gauge tracking the dollar against 10 peers on Friday capped its longest streak of weekly losses since October 2013 after mixed economic reports forced investors to push back estimates for when US interest rates will begin to rise.

Talks on an aid package for Greece continue in Europe. China reported that new-home prices fell in fewer cities last month.

“Investors are likely to start the week in cautious mode as markets assimilate the impact of weaker than expected US data and wait on developments in the Greek debt saga,” Ric Spooner, chief market analyst in Sydney at CMC Markets, wrote in an e-mail to clients.

“The first Fed rate hike now seems at least several months away. While this supports equity valuations, it also means that the outlook for world growth remains subdued.”

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.8% -0.3% -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index -1.0% -0.5% 0.4%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.8% -2.0% -3.1%


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for EUR/USD in forex trading:

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Monetary Policy Minutes
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Apr)
  EUR German ZEW Economic 49.0 53.3
  EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.0% 0.0%
  USD Building Permits (Apr) 1.065M 1.042M
  CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May


EUR/USD technical analysis forecast


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