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EUR/USD Analysis Forecast, May 22, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 22, 2015 - Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 22, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast):

The EUR/USD recovered its earlier losses to add 66 points after some positive and some mixed data today saw the euro climb to 1.1160. The European Central Bank approved the smallest rise in emergency cash for Greek lenders since tensions re-emerged in February, a sign that deposit outflows may be easing as political talks on the nation’s finances improve.

At a meeting in Frankfurt on Wednesday, the Governing Council consented to a €200 million ($222 million) increase in the cap on Emergency Liquidity Assistance to €80.2 billion, people familiar with the discussion said. No decision was taken to alter the discounts applied to the collateral pledged for the Bank of Greece loans, the people said, asking not to be named as the matter isn’t public.

With European leaders due to engage with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras at a meeting in Riga, Latvia, on Thursday, the euro’s monetary guardians are taking their lead from political discussions over the nation’s bailout. While the ECB isn’t giving Greece’s lenders more leeway than it judges they need, officials are aware that tightening the squeeze could worsen the crisis just as talks show signs of progress.

Signs that the positive effects of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program such as a weakening of the euro, may have started to peter out in the second quarter have pushed some investors to trim their exposure to European stocks, though they still remain near multi-year peaks.

Data pointed to a mixed picture for the euro zone’s economic recovery, with German private-sector growth slowing again in May even as France extended its timid recovery. Markit, which surveys more than 5,000 businesses across the Eurozone, said on Thursday that its composite purchasing managers index–a measure of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors–fell to 53.4 in May from 53.9 in April, hitting a three-month low and disappointing economists’ expectations of a more modest decline to 53.8. A reading below 50 indicates activity is declining, while a reading above that level indicates it is increasing.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

49.1

49.3

48.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI

51.4

52.3

52.1

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (May)  

52.9

53.9

54.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (May)  

52.3

52.0

52.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (May)  

53.4

53.8

53.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (May)  

53.3

53.9

54.1

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

1.2%

0.3%

0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

4.7%

3.7%

4.8%

   

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

1.2%

0.4%

-0.7%

   

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

4.7%

3.8%

4.0%

   

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders

-5

3

1

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting  

 

 

 

   

 EURUSD(60 minutes)20150521064439

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 22, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index (May)

 

108.3

108.6

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.2%

0.6%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

 

0.4%

2.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

EUR/USD analysis forecast

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