EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 11, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast 2015 May):

The EUR/USD dipped 50 points to trade at 1.1216 as German production and trade missed expectations and the US dollar gained after the release of a strong weekly unemployment report. Traders are sitting quietly ahead of the NFP jobs data due in the North American session.  Investors avoided taking lopsided positions amid a mixture of expectation and anxiety ahead of U.S. jobs data later Friday. But weekly initial jobless claims overnight in the U.S. were strong enough to keep alive expectations for upbeat numbers in the April nonfarm payrolls report, in what may show a rebound from disappointing reading a month ago.

Because of expectations for good numbers from the jobs report after a poor reading last month, “we would see a pattern of the dollar selling, if lackluster numbers come out,” said Marito Ueda, director of FX Prime.

Technical-level talks continued in Brussels on Friday between Greek officials and representatives of the country’s international creditors in a bid to achieve as much convergence as possible ahead of Monday’s Eurogroup summit in Brussels.

Greece’s chief representative at the Brussels Group Giorgos Houliarakis was expected to brief Eurozone deputy finance ministers during a scheduled teleconference on Friday of the so-called Euro Working Group.

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, who is to represent Greece at the Brussels meeting on Monday despite an overhaul of the Greek negotiating team that brought other officials into the picture, underlined the fact that progress has been made in negotiations in comments at a business conference in Brussels on Thursday. Varoufakis is expected to meet his German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble on Monday ahead of the summit.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY Monetary Policy Meeting
  AUD RBA Monetary Statement
  CNY Exports (YoY) (Apr) -6.4% 2.4% -15.0%
  CNY Imports (YoY) (Apr) -16.2% -12.0% -12.7%
  CNY Trade Balance (Apr) 34.13B 39.45B 3.08B
  EUR German Industrial Production -0.5% 0.4% 0.2%
  EUR German Trade Balance (Mar) 19.3B 20.0B 20.0B
  GBP Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 8.5% 7.8% 8.1%
  GBP Halifax House Price Index 1.6% 0.4% 0.6%
  GBP Trade Balance (Mar) -9.80B -10.34B
  GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar) -2.95B -3.24B

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

Monday, May 11, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Russia – Victory Day
  AUD NAB Business Confidence (Apr) 3
  GBP BoE QE Total (May) 375B
  GBP Interest Rate Decision (May) 0.50% 0.50%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt



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