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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast):

The EUR/USD continues to fall today as traders wait for news from the Eurogroup who are once again discussing the Greek financial crisis. Greek officials say they will reach a deal today with most eurozone leaders do not see an agreement in the cards. The euro is down 33 points at 1.1168.  Warnings of an accidental default loom over debt-swamped Greece as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ anti-austerity government heads for another confrontation with an increasingly testy German-led bloc of creditors.

Greece needs at least a symbolic show of progress at Monday’s meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels to persuade the European Central Bank to keep emergency funds flowing to Greek banks at the current pace. The next hurdle comes just a day later, when Greece has to pay about 750 million euros ($840 million) to the International Monetary Fund.

Tsipras met with top cabinet ministers for several hours on Sunday to brief them on the negotiations. Athens expects the Eurogroup to officially acknowledge important progress, a Greek government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity as the talks were private, said after the meeting. Tsipras and his ministers confirmed the need for a mutually beneficial deal within the framework of the government’s mandate, the official said.

Greece’s program runs until the end of June. The EU official said that while deadlines aren’t cast in stone, a technical agreement on a revised program needs to be struck by early June to allow time for approval by creditor governments.

An accord “will surely not be reached at the Eurogroup meeting on Monday,” Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the meeting’s chairman, told Italy’s Corriere della Sera newspaper. “We will need more time, but I don’t know how much.” The meeting starts at 3 p.m.

While day-to-day deliberations are now in the hands of Deputy Foreign Minister Euclid Tsakalotos, Varoufakis will be Greece’s chief representative at the Brussels meeting. He denied being demoted, telling BBC World on Thursday: “I am the chief negotiator for the Greek government.”

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  EUR ECB’s Nowotny Speaks
  GBP BoE QE Total (May)  375B 375B 375B
  GBP Interest Rate Decision (May)  0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 3.2%
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% 1.2%
  GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% 0.1%
  GBP Manufacturing Production 0.3% 0.4%
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) 5.085M 5.133M
  USD Federal Budget Balance (Apr) 146.5B -53.0B

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

EUR/USD forecast 2015 with fundamental analysis

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