Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast):
The EUR/USD continues to fall today as traders wait for news from the Eurogroup who are once again discussing the Greek financial crisis. Greek officials say they will reach a deal today with most eurozone leaders do not see an agreement in the cards. The euro is down 33 points at 1.1168. Warnings of an accidental default loom over debt-swamped Greece as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ anti-austerity government heads for another confrontation with an increasingly testy German-led bloc of creditors.
Greece needs at least a symbolic show of progress at Monday’s meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels to persuade the European Central Bank to keep emergency funds flowing to Greek banks at the current pace. The next hurdle comes just a day later, when Greece has to pay about 750 million euros ($840 million) to the International Monetary Fund.
Tsipras met with top cabinet ministers for several hours on Sunday to brief them on the negotiations. Athens expects the Eurogroup to officially acknowledge important progress, a Greek government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity as the talks were private, said after the meeting. Tsipras and his ministers confirmed the need for a mutually beneficial deal within the framework of the government’s mandate, the official said.
Greece’s program runs until the end of June. The EU official said that while deadlines aren’t cast in stone, a technical agreement on a revised program needs to be struck by early June to allow time for approval by creditor governments.
An accord “will surely not be reached at the Eurogroup meeting on Monday,” Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the meeting’s chairman, told Italy’s Corriere della Sera newspaper. “We will need more time, but I don’t know how much.” The meeting starts at 3 p.m.
While day-to-day deliberations are now in the hands of Deputy Foreign Minister Euclid Tsakalotos, Varoufakis will be Greece’s chief representative at the Brussels meeting. He denied being demoted, telling BBC World on Thursday: “I am the chief negotiator for the Greek government.”
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|EUR||ECB’s Nowotny Speaks|
|GBP||BoE QE Total (May)||375B||375B||375B|
|GBP||Interest Rate Decision (May)||0.50%||0.50%||0.50%|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading:
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
|GBP||BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)||3.2%|
|AUD||Home Loans (MoM) (Mar)||1.0%||1.2%|
|GBP||Industrial Production (MoM)||0.1%||0.1%|
|USD||JOLTs Job Openings (Mar)||5.085M||5.133M|
|USD||Federal Budget Balance (Apr)||146.5B||-53.0B|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction
May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund
May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May
May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt
EUR/USD forecast 2015 with fundamental analysis
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