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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 13, 2015 – Forecast

 

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast 2015):

The EUR/USD soared 98 points as traders relaxed after Greece pulled another rabbit out of the hat, tapping its IMF reserves to make the IMF payment due today. It seems that it is just a numbers game as Greece repaid the IMF interest payment with IMF money but the markets were happy and tragedy was averted for a bit longer. The euro is trading at 1.1254.

The euro rallied after turning down following a eurozone finance ministers’ meeting that failed to reach an agreement on debt-wracked Greece’s bailout reform. Athens managed to garner enough money to repay the International Monetary Fund 750 million euros and avoid a default, keeping it from tumbling out of the eurozone for now. But analysts warned over euro weakness as Athens faces another cash crunch in a matter of weeks.

Finance ministers of the euro zone welcomed progress in negotiations between Greece and its creditors on a cash-for-reform deal but said more work is needed to bridge differences holding up a comprehensive agreement. The Eurogroup met yesterday to discuss Greece. The chances that Greece will leave the eurozone are slightly less than one in four, according to a Reuter’s poll, but if Athens defaults on a IMF loan today, the likelihood will increase.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.6% 1.0% 1.1%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.434% 0.369%
  GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
  GBP Manufacturing Production 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
  GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.6%
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) 5.085M 5.133M

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Cur.   Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Adjusted Current Account 1.34T 0.60T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 6.0% 5.6%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% -0.1%
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.7%
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) -20.0K -20.7K
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.5% 5.6%
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.3%
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% 1.1%
  GBP BoE Inflation Report
  EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
  USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% 0.4%
  USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.9%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.882M

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 08:10 Dutch Eur 2-3bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

May 12 09:15 Norway Eur 4bn 4.5% May 2019 bond

May 12 09:30 Germany Eur 1bn 0.1% Apr 2026 I/L Bund

May 12 17:00 US USD 24bn 3-year notes

May 13 09:10 Italy Eur 2.5-3bn 0.25% May 2018 & Eur 2-2.5bn 1.35% Apr 2022

BTPs, plus Eur 1-1.5bn 1.65% Mar 2032 & 3.25% Sep 2046

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.5% Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 13 17:00 US USD 24bn 10-year notes

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

EUR/USD Forecast 2015

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