Share

EUR/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast For June 2015

Outlook and Recommendation for EUR/USD June 2015

The EUR/USD ended the month on a high note just under the 1.10 big figure as traders saw better than expected data and Greek leaders were saying a deal would be done over the weekend. This did not happen and the euro plunged first thing Monday morning June 1st.

The ECB’s monetary policy is also aimed at promoting growth and, via a weaker currency, creating inflation expectations and inflation. The ECB’s escalated bond-buying in early March also had the intended effects in terms of rising economic indicators and higher inflation expectations going forward. But in order to sustain this success, by all indications the EUR needs to depreciate further.

During the latter part of 2014 and early in 2015, the US dollar (USD) strengthened sharply against other world currencies. The driving forces were strong US macroeconomic statistics and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would introduce rate hikes during the spring or summer of 2015. Since then, the USD has weakened temporarily because of unexpectedly weak US economic data and subsequent speculation in the foreign exchange (FX) market that the Fed will delay rate hikes.

Monetary policies are having a clear impact on the world economy. The belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin raising its key interest rate during 2015 has caused the US dollar to appreciate. Combined with extreme winter weather and port labour disputes, this caused US growth to dip temporarily. In the euro zone, European Central Bank (ECB) stimulus policies have rapidly affected growth as well as inflation expectations, and the euro has fallen in value.

This spring’s weakening of the USD against the EUR is expected to be only a temporary dip in a rising dollar curve, as indicated by rising US economic growth and the Fed’s imminent key rate hikes.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in trading forex. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

EURUSD(4 Hours)20150601062438

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for EUR/USD in trading forex:

Cur. Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

Monday, June 1, 2015

    CNY Manufacturing PMI

50.2

50.2

50.1

    CNY HSBC Manufacturing

49.2

49.2

49.1

    USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

52.0

51.5

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

    AUD RBA Rate Statement

 

    EUR German Unemployment

 

-10K

-8K

    GBP Construction PMI (May)

 

55.0

54.2

    EUR CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.2%

0.0%

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

    AUD GDP (YoY) (Q1)

 

2.0%

2.5%

    GBP Services PMI (May)

 

59.2

59.5

    USD ADP Nonfarm

 

200K

169K

    EUR ECB Press Conference

 

    USD ISM Non-Manufacturing

 

57.0

57.8

Thursday, June 4, 2015

    AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.4%

0.3%

    GBP Interest Rate Decision

 

0.50%

0.50%

Friday, June 5, 2015

    USD Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

 

225K

223K

    USD Unemployment Rate

 

5.4%

5.4%

Monday, June 8, 2015

    CNY Trade Balance (May)

 

34.13B

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

  CNY CPI (YoY) (May)

 

1.5%

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

  GBP Man Production

 

0.4%

  NZD Interest Rate Decision

 

3.50%

3.50%

Thursday, June 11, 2015

  AUD Employment Change

 

-2.9K

    CNY Industrial Production

 

5.9%

    USD Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.8%

Friday, June 12, 2015

    USD PPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.3%

-0.4%

Monday, June 15, 2015

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

    GBP CPI (YoY) (May)

 

-0.1%

    EUR German ZEW Economic

 

41.9

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

    GBP Claimant Count Change

 

-12.6K

  EUR CPI (YoY) (May)

 

  NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.8%

Friday, June 19, 2015

    CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.5%

Monday, June 22, 2015

    China – Dragon Boat Festival

 

 

 

 

EUR/USD analysis forecast archieve

 

Leave a Comment