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EUR/USD Weekly Analysis Forecast – June 15-19, 2015 – Forecast

eurusd weekly bnsWeekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD bounced up as high as 1.1385 on hopes of a deal with Greece and then fell to the 1.11 price as the IMF walked out of talks. The pair closed at 1.1261 up by 1.33% for the week.  The headlines pointing to rising tensions on Greece multiplied, including quotes that Greece was given less than 24 hours to accept a proposal and that EU officials held formal talks on a possible Greek debt default.

The dollar fell this week against the euro and yen as investors prepared themselves for the possibility that the Federal Reserve won’t deliver clearer signals on its plans for interest rates at its next meeting.

Over five sessions this week, the dollar retreated 1.3% against the common currency, with one euro buying $1.1265 in late-afternoon trade Friday. On Friday, the dollar initially fell but regained ground to hold steady against the euro.

he dollar’s path illustrates the degree of uncertainty that traders and investors have concerning the Fed’s timing on raising short-term interest rates, which would boost demand for the buck.

Many in the market braced for the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, when the central bank could acknowledge the U.S. economy’s recent progress yet still adopt a cautious stance on interest rates, said Karl Schamotta, director of currency risk and strategy at Cambridge Global Payments, which helps corporations hedge their currency risk.

Consumers appear more confident, with strong retail sales in May and the University of Michigan preliminary June sentiment index rising to 94.6 from an end-May level of 90.7. Also in May, the producer-price index, which gauges prices that businesses receive for their goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5%.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

Monday, June 15, 2015

 

  RUB

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

11.50%

12.50%

 

 

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic

 

37.1

41.9

 

 

 

  USD

 

Building Permits (May)

 

1.100M

1.140M

 

 

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (May)

 

-12.5K

-12.6K

 

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Interest Rate Decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, June 18, 2015

 

  NZD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

 

0.8%

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

1.2%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Philadelphia Fed

 

8.0

6.7

 

 

Friday, June 19, 2015

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.3%

0.1%

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.3%

0.5%

   

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 15 00:00 UK New 30 year I/L syndicated Gilt auction

Jun 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 17 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

Jun 18 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligations

Jun 18 11:10 France Auctions BTANs

Jun 18 12:10 France Auctions OATi

Jun 18 17:00 US Details 2-year FRNs

Jun 18 17:00 US Announces details of 2/5/7 year notes

Jun 18 18:00 US Auctions 30-year TIPs sale on 24 Jun

EUR/USD analysis forecast

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