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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, May 11 – 15, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation (Eur/Usd Forecast May 2015):

The EUR/USD dipped 65 points as the countdown to a Greek default moves closer. The euro is trading at 1.1201. The dollar edged up against the euro on Friday after a solid US jobs report that seemed to discount the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in June.

The US economy added 223,000 jobs in April, bouncing back from a mere 85,000 in March, the Labor Department reported, roughly in line with the consensus estimate. While the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.4 per cent, a seven-year low, the details in the report showed only slight signs of a tightening labor market.

The Federal Reserve is particularly focused on the labor market’s strength in deciding when to raise the benchmark federal funds rate, pegged at the zero bound since late 2008 to support the recovery from the Great Recession. The US central bank has indicated the rate liftoff could come as early as June but the decision would be data-dependent.

The U.S. dollar failed to rally on Friday against a basket of major currencies after a mixed U.S. jobs report stoked uncertainty over the timing of Federal Reserve rate hikes, but gains against the euro helped the currency edge higher. So this effected a rise for eur/usd for a while.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for eur/usd in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

 eur/usd chart

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

MONDAY, MAY 11

UK

GBP

BoE Asset Purchase Facility

£375

£375

UK

GBP

BoE Interest Rate Decision

0.5%

0.5%

TUESDAY, MAY 12

UK

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Apr)

0.6%

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13

DE

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)

0.7%

EMU

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)

0.9%

UK

GBP

BOE’s Governor Carney speech

UK

GBP

Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

EMU

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

US

USD

Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr)

0.4%

US

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.9%

FRIDAY, MAY 15

JP

JPY

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

EUR/USD Forecast 2015 Weekly Analysis of May 2015

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