Analysis and Recommendations (GBP/USD Forecast for 3 June):
The GBP/USD gained 44 points after the release of a better than expected Construction PMI. The pound hit 1.5245. The Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rebounded in May to 55.9 in May from April’s 22-month low of 54.2, above the 50 mark that denotes growth and beating a Reuters poll forecast of 55.0. Sterling hit its lowest level against the US dollar since the General Election yesterday amid renewed concerns about the economy.
The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of activity in UK factories – where 50 is the cut-off between growth and decline – edged up from a weak 51.8 in April to just 52 in May.
The report, by Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, blamed ‘lackluster demand from overseas’ for the ongoing disappointment.
Sluggish manufacturing growth contrasts with a boom in the services sector as the economy endures a two-speed recovery from the Great Recession.
Figures published tomorrow are expected to show the services PMI at close to 60 in May after hitting an eight-month high of 59.5 in April.
In the UK, David Cameron’s Conservative Party won a general election last month after promising to hold a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU by 2017. Investors saw geopolitical risk, a reversal of the economic recovery and interest rate movements as the main risks, according to GAM’s survey.
With the down trend of USD Index novadays and positive PMI data from GB, GBPUSD had a rise and moving near critical area depending on 4Hrs chart as we were talking for a couple of days. As you remember, 100 and 200 periods EMA are important for GBP/USD and yesterday 200 periods EMA has been tested. Currently moving between 200 EMA (1.5530) and 100 EMA (1.5590) and 1.5390 level is so important. In order to continue its rise, GBP/USD must move over this band. After than 1.5475 – 1.5525 may be tested. otherwise, falling to 1.5260 won’t be a suprise.
Today would be too volatil for GBP cos there will be PMI announcements in the first half of the day, after than Non Farm payrolls data from US will arrive. Also do not forget about ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech.
Support And Resistance Levels Of GBP/USD for 03 June
Pivot : 1.5390
Support : 1.5330-1.5300-1.5260
Resistance : 1.5390-1.5430-1.5475
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in trading forex. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for GBP/USD in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|AUD||Current Account (Q1)||-10.7B||-10.8B||-10.2B|
|AUD||Interest Rate Decision (Jun)||2.00%||2.00%||2.00%|
|AUD||RBA Rate Statement|
|EUR||Spanish Unemployment Change||-118.0K||-115.5K||-118.9K|
|EUR||German Unemployment Change||-6K||-10K||-9K|
|EUR||German Unemployment Rate||6.4%||6.4%||6.4%|
|GBP||Construction PMI (May)||55.0||54.2|
|EUR||Core CPI (YoY) (May)||0.7%||0.6%|
|EUR||CPI (YoY) (May)||0.2%||0.0%|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for GBP/USD in trading fore:
Wednesday, June 03, 2015
|AUD||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.5%||0.5%|
|AUD||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||2.0%||2.5%|
|GBP||Services PMI (May)||59.2||59.5|
|EUR||Interest Rate Decision (Jun)||0.05%||0.05%|
|USD||ADP Nonfarm Employment||200K||169K|
|EUR||ECB Press Conference|
|USD||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||57.0||57.8|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.25bn 2% Sep 2025 Conventional Gilt
Jun 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 3.5% Jun 2022 & Sek 2bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds
Jun 03 11:10 Swiss Holds bond auction
Jun 03 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.0% Apr 2020
Jun 04 11:10 France Eur 8-9bn 1.75% May 2023
Jun 04 11:30 UK Gbp 750mn 4.25% 2055 mini-Gilt tender
Jun 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 10 Jun
Jun 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 June
Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt
Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction
Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz
Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June
Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction
Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt
Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun