Analysis and Recommendations (GBP/USD Forecast For 25 May):
The GBP/USD recovered 31 points to 1.5413 as the US dollar eased in the European session as traders adjusted after the rally that extended since last week. There has been no data out of the UK and traders were on a long holiday on Monday. Sterling bulls emerged on Thursday after data showed British retail sales rose more strongly than anticipated in April. The currency had taken a knock earlier this week after UK inflation fell below zero in April for the first time in 55 years.
“Aside from inflation risks, the UK economic outlook is extremely bright and this is very attractive to traders,” said Jameel Ahmad, chief market strategist at FXTM.
“There were concerns that the UK economic revival was at risk of being over reliant on its housing sector. But consumers are now driving the UK recovery in different ways with the combination of low inflation and rising wages providing a boost to retailers.”
Bank of England Deputy Governor said on Friday she saw “encouraging” signs from wage and labour market data, and that the causes of Britain’s plunging inflation rate were not expected to last long.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis For 28 May
GBP/USD is moving below 55 and 110 days EMA. This strengths the power of bears in the market. Below 1.53, more sellers may enter trades. Technically it is in down trend, trying to support 55 days EMA but failed yesterday. Todays movement may be considered as a correction of the last few days so, being in BUY position is not recommended.
Below 1.5300 reistance bearish pressure would be effective. So this may trigger sell positions to get the parity till 1.5165. 1.5125 – 1.5085 band would be talked then. Buyers should wait 1.53 to be broken up.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for GBP/USD in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|JPY||Monetary Policy Minutes|
|AUD||RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks|
|AUD||Construction Work Done||-2.4%||-1.5%||-0.6%|
|EUR||GfK German Consumer Climate||10.2||10.0||10.1|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in trading forex for GBP/USD:
Thursday, May 28, 2015
|JPY||Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)||5.4%||-9.7%|
|AUD||Private New Capital||-2.4%||-2.2%|
|USD||FOMC Member Williams|
|EUR||Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.9%||0.9%|
|GBP||BBA Mortgage Approvals||39.2K||38.8K|
|GBP||Business Investment (QoQ)||1.0%||-0.9%|
|GBP||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||2.5%||2.4%|
|RUB||Central Bank reserves (USD)||362.3B|
|USD||Initial Jobless Claims||270K||274K|
|CAD||Current Account (Q1)||-18.5B||-13.9B|
|CAD||RMPI (MoM) (Apr)||1.6%||-0.9%|
|USD||Pending Home Sales (MoM)||0.9%||1.1%|
|USD||Crude Oil Inventories||-2.674M|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 27 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction
May 27 09:30 Germany Eur 2bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund
May 27 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt
May 27 16:00 US Auctions 2-year FRNs
May 27 17:00 US Auctions 5-year notes
May 28 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
May 28 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction
May 28 17:00 US Auctions 7-year notes
Jun 02 11:30 UK Auctions 2% 2025 Conventional Gilt
Jun 03 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Jun 03 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Apr 2020
Jun 04 11:10 France Auctions OATs