Analysis and Recommendations (GBP/USD Forecast):
The GBP/USD added 67 points after the Bank of England inflation report and the weaker US dollar. The pound is trading at 1.5737. UK industrial output rose an unexpected 0.5 percent in March, month on month, the strongest growth since September after 0.1 percent growth in February, according to the Financial Times. Despite expectations, there was a month-on-month rise of 4.9 percent in oil and gas extraction in March. It was the fastest rate for over a year, as oil prices began to recover.
The Bank of England today slashed its growth forecasts for this year to a median assessment of 2.5 per cent, down from 2.9 per cent.
The quarterly inflation report, in which the bank sets out its forecasts for economic growth and inflation, offers the first insight into policymakers’ thinking since they entered election purdah six weeks ago.
Governor Mark Carney said he thinks that economic growth will “re-accelerate” after a soft first quarter. The most significant development was is Eurozone economy – which is shaking off a period of stagnation – thanks to an unprecedented stimulus package which can only be a good thing for the UK.
Britain’s economy growth slowed from 0.6 per cent to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2015,, following a slew of disappointing economic data.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for GBP/USD in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|NZD||RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks|
|JPY||Current Account n.s.a. (Mar)||2.795T||2.060T||1.440T|
|AUD||Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)||0.5%||0.6%||0.6%|
|CNY||Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)||12.0%||13.5%||13.5%|
|CNY||Industrial Production (YoY)||5.9%||6.0%||5.6%|
|EUR||German CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.0%||-0.1%||-0.1%|
|EUR||German GDP (YoY) (Q1)||1.1%||1.2%||1.6%|
|EUR||German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.3%||0.5%||0.7%|
|CNY||New Loans (Apr)||707.9B||903.0B||1,180.0B|
|GBP||Average Earnings Index +Bonus||1.9%||1.7%||1.7%|
|GBP||Claimant Count Change (Apr)||-12.6K||-20.0K||-16.7K|
|GBP||Unemployment Rate (Mar)||5.5%||5.5%||5.6%|
|EUR||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.5%||0.3%|
|EUR||Industrial Production (MoM)||0.2%||1.1%|
|GBP||BoE Gov Carney Speaks|
|GBP||BoE Inflation Report|
|EUR||Monetary Policy Meeting|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for GBP/USD in forex trading:
Thursday, May 14, 2015
|NZD||Business NZ PMI (Apr)||54.5|
|NZD||Core Retail Sales (QoQ)||1.5%||1.5%|
|NZD||Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1)||1.5%||1.7%|
|GBP||RICS House Price Balance (Apr)||22%||21%|
|USD||Core PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.1%||0.2%|
|USD||Initial Jobless Claims||275K||265K|
|USD||PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.2%|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs
May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt
May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May
May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond
May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills
May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
GBP/USD analysis forecast
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