GBP/USD Analysis Forecast, May 18, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (GBP/USD Forecast):

The GBP/USD gave up 62 points to trade at 1.5714 remaining near its top hit just days ago. Sterling hit a 7-year high against a trade-weighted basket of currencies on Wednesday on strong wages and jobs data, but was knocked back after the BoE cut its growth forecasts and warned about a strong pound’s impact on the outlook for interest rates.

The UK economy has outpaced much of Europe over the past two years, and the prospect that Britain will be the first to follow any rise in US rates has underpinned sterling.

The dollar, though, has come under pressure in the past few weeks, hurt by concerns that the US economy has been suffering from more than a winter chill. Retail sales data for April disappointed on Wednesday and added to a view that the Federal Reserve was unlikely to raise rates in a hurry.

The latest Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report was published an hour after the go-ahead UK jobs data and it served to reverse almost all of the Pound’s early morning gains. The main headline-grabber from the missive saw the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street drastically cut its GDP growth forecast for the domestic economy over one, two and three years. The cut from an annualized 2.9% to a year-on-year 2.5% for 2015 came as the biggest blow.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for GBP/USD in our weekly reports.

GBPUSD technical analysis chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  CHF PPI (MoM) (Apr) -2.1% -0.1% 0.2%
  USD NY Empire State Manufacturing   5.00 -1.19  
  USD Industrial Production (MoM)   0.1% -0.6%  
  USD Michigan Consumer   88.6 88.8  

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for GBP/USD in forex trading:

Monday, May 18, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.3%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.7%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May


GBP/USD technical  analysis forecast


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