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GBP/USD Analysis Forecast, May 19, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (GBP/USD Forecast for 19 May):

The GBP/USD gave back 35 points as the US dollar recovered after a week of losses. The pound remained strong but trade at 1.5692 remaining near its recent highs. Sterling rose to its highest in nearly six months against a weaker dollar last week buoyed by comments from Bank of England chief Mark Carney who said it was possible interest rates would be higher in a year’s time.

Asked in a BBC radio interview if interest rates were likely to be higher by this time next year, Carney said: “It’s possible, but it depends on the evolution of the economy.’’

He also said recent sterling strength could be a bit of a dampener to growth, echoing comments made on Wednesday when he said a strong currency would have a role to play in setting monetary policy.

The UK economy has outpaced much of Europe over the past two years, and the prospect that Britain will be the first to follow any rise in US rates has underpinned sterling.

The dollar, though, has come under pressure in the past few weeks, hurt by concerns that the US economy has been suffering from more than a winter chill. Retail sales data for April disappointed on Wednesday and added to a view that the Federal Reserve was unlikely to raise rates in a hurry.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for GBP/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.8% -0.3% -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index -1.0% -0.5% 0.4%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.8% -2.0% -3.1%

 GBPUSD chart

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for GBP/USD in forex trading:

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Monetary Policy Minutes
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Apr)
  EUR German ZEW Economic 49.0 53.3
  EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.0% 0.0%
  USD Building Permits (Apr) 1.065M 1.042M
  CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

GBP/USD technical analysis forecast

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