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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 6, 2015 – Forecast

gbpusd tuesday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD dipped 4 points giving back earlier gains after UK construction PMI printed in the red and the idea of “Brexit” continued to plagues investors with election uncertainties pressuring the currency. Sterling eased versus the other major currencies in the early European session on Tuesday, after data showed that British construction sector expansion slowed for a second month in a row in April, marking the weakest pace in nearly two years.

Data from Markit Economics showed that UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index fell sharply to 54.2 from 57.8 in March. Economists had forecast a modest drop to 57.4.

Uncertainty over the UK election prevails, with the polls still showing a coalition of Conservatives and Labour – parties as majorities, leading to a hung parliament.

Traders remain cautious on whether Greek negotiations would reach into a deal on May 11 Eurogroup meeting. Uncertainty over Greece still remains on whether it could make payment. Greece Labor Minister Panos Skourletis said in a television interview that the International Monetary Fund, Greece’s second biggest creditor after Eurozone governments, was pushing the cash-strapped country too hard over labor reforms for an interim deal to unlock frozen bailout aid.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Mar)

-1.322B

-1.000B

-1.609B

   

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

2.00%

2.00%

2.25%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish Unemployment

-118.9K

-64.8K

-60.2K

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Apr)

 54.2

57.5

57.8

   

 gbpusd tuesday

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.8%

1.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

 

0.4%

0.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Apr)

 

58.5

58.9

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment

 

200K

189K

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Apr)

 

49.2

47.9

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 09:15 Austria Eur 1.1bn 3.5% Sep 2021

May 06 09:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 3.5% Jun 2022

May 06 09:10 Greece Eur 0.875bn 6 month (Nov 2015) T-bills

May 06 09:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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