Analysis and Recommendations (GBP/USD Forecast):
The GBP/USD eased slightly ahead of elections tomorrow. The weak US dollar helped the pound from a collapse. The pair is trading at 1.5176. The government was handed a last-minute election boost after the last major piece of economic news before the polls signaled a booming UK services sector, easing fears of a sharp slowdown in the wider economy.
Growth in the sector, which accounts for roughly three-quarters of the UK economy and includes areas such as bars, restaurants and transport, was stronger than economists predicted, hitting an eight-month high in April.
The headline index of the Markit/CIPS services PMI – broadly reflecting activity in the sector – rose to 59.5 in April, from 58.9 in March, where anything above 5o signals growth
The first data release of the month concerning the manufacturing sector confirms a trend we are seeing right across the globe – economic growth is slowing down.
The slowdown comes despite record-low oil prices and unprecedented amounts of money being pumped into the financial system by global central banks.
The once solid UK economy is apparently not immune to this trend. A reading of 51.9 was delivered by the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI survey. A reading of 54 was expected suggesting this is a big miss in expectations.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|Japan – Greenery Day|
|NZD||Employment Change (QoQ)||0.7%||0.8%||1.2%|
|AUD||Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)||0.3%||0.4%||0.7%|
|GBP||Services PMI (Apr)||59.5||58.5||58.9|
|USD||ADP Nonfarm Employment||200K||189K|
|USD||Fed Chair Yellen Speaks|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Thursday, May 7, 2015
|AUD||Employment Change (Apr)||5.0K||37.7K|
|AUD||Full Employment Change (Apr)||31.5K|
|AUD||Unemployment Rate (Apr)||6.2%||6.1%|
|EUR||German Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar)||1.5%||-0.9%|
|RUB||Central Bank reserves (USD)||353.5B|
|USD||Initial Jobless Claims||280K||262K|
|CAD||Building Permits (MoM) (Mar)||2.5%||-0.9%|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%
May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs
May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction
May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May
May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP
May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction
May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund
May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May
May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt
GBP/USD Exchange Rate