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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 8, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (GBP/USD Forecast):

The GBP/USD dipped just 10 points as traders sit quietly awaiting election result. The pair is trading at 1.5238. Forget everything else today as traders stay glued to the first exit polls due after 2200gmt as votes take to the polls today to elect a new government. Despite the prospect of the UK General Election almost certain to result in a hung parliament, the markets have been relatively undeterred by the potential outcome in the past few days, however tension seems to be building with a weaker pound this morning. The outcome will not become clear until the early hours of tomorrow and even though the polls have consistently pointed to no clear winner, the huge amount of undecided voters could still tip the balance; you only have to look at the inconclusive polls in the run up to the 1992 election and subsequent decisive result.

The dollar languished near its lowest levels in over two months against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, under renewed pressure from disappointing US data, while a further spike in German bond yields supported the euro. Figures on Wednesday showed US private sector employers in April hired the fewest workers in more than a year, raising a red flag for non-farm payrolls due on Friday.

The dollar index slid as far as 93.882 – a low last seen in mid-February – and last stood at 94.03. It has fallen more than 6 percent from a 12-year peak of 100.39 set in March.

Dollar bulls are looking for evidence that the US economy has bounced back following a very soft patch in the first quarter.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Employment Change (Apr) -2.9K 5.0K 48.2K
  AUD Full Employment Change (Apr) -21.9K 41.3K
  AUD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 6.2% 6.2% 6.1%
  EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) 0.9% 1.5% -0.9%
  RUB Central Bank reserves (USD) 353.5B
  USD Initial Jobless Claims 280K 262K

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 8, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  CNY Trade Balance (Apr) 39.45B 3.08B
  USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 224K 126K
  USD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 5.4% 5.5%
  CAD Employment Change (Apr) -5.0K 28.7K

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

GBP/USD Exchange Rate

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