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GBP/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast for June 2015

Outlook and Recommendation for GBP/USD June 2015

The GBP/USD was hit after soaring mid-month to near recent highs the pound ended just below the 1.53 price line.  After last year’s high growth, the British economy began 2015 on a weaker note. Yet there are reasons to be optimistic about the economic outlook. Among positive factors are the oil price decline, lower unemployment and political stability after the Tories won the May 7 election and formed their own government.

In many respects, the macroeconomic environment for the pound (GBP) is similar to the one of the USD. In both the UK and the US, growth last year was fairly high, followed by short-term dips early this year. As we had warned last month, the USD’s uptrend could only last as long as there are no hints the Fed will delay rate hikes. Unfortunately for those long USD, there were several such hints during April courtesy of ugly economic reports from the prior quarter.

One risk in calling for GBP weakness is that former dissenting MPC members McCafferty and Weale might start calling for rate hikes earlier than investors currently expect. Evidence of increasingly tight labour markets—a 5.5% unemployment rate and strong average earnings growth—suggests that consumption should remain well supported.

Nevertheless, our base case is for GBP weakness over the next couple of quarters with GBPUSD hitting $1.52 in Q3. The prospect of a referendum before the end of 2017 on EU membership could also become a medium-term headwind to sterling.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in trading forex. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for GBP/USD in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

GBPUSD(4 Hours)20150601062443

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for GBP/USD in trading forex:

Cur. Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

Monday, June 1, 2015

    CNY Manufacturing PMI

50.2

50.2

50.1

    CNY HSBC Manufacturing

49.2

49.2

49.1

    USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

52.0

51.5

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

    AUD RBA Rate Statement

 

    EUR German Unemployment

 

-10K

-8K

    GBP Construction PMI (May)

 

55.0

54.2

    EUR CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.2%

0.0%

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

    AUD GDP (YoY) (Q1)

 

2.0%

2.5%

    GBP Services PMI (May)

 

59.2

59.5

    USD ADP Nonfarm

 

200K

169K

    EUR ECB Press Conference

 

    USD ISM Non-Manufacturing

 

57.0

57.8

Thursday, June 4, 2015

    AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.4%

0.3%

    GBP Interest Rate Decision

 

0.50%

0.50%

Friday, June 5, 2015

    USD Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

 

225K

223K

    USD Unemployment Rate

 

5.4%

5.4%

Monday, June 8, 2015

    CNY Trade Balance (May)

 

34.13B

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

  CNY CPI (YoY) (May)

 

1.5%

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

  GBP Man Production

 

0.4%

  NZD Interest Rate Decision

 

3.50%

3.50%

Thursday, June 11, 2015

  AUD Employment Change

 

-2.9K

    CNY Industrial Production

 

5.9%

    USD Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.8%

Friday, June 12, 2015

    USD PPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.3%

-0.4%

Monday, June 15, 2015

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

    GBP CPI (YoY) (May)

 

-0.1%

    EUR German ZEW Economic

 

41.9

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

    GBP Claimant Count Change

 

-12.6K

  EUR CPI (YoY) (May)

 

  NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.8%

Friday, June 19, 2015

    CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.5%

Monday, June 22, 2015

    China – Dragon Boat Festival

 

GBP/USD analysis forecast archieve

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