Analysis and Recommendations (Gold And Silver Forecast):
Gold is flat at 1206.70 while Silver gained 22 points to 17.093 and Platinum added $3.15 to 1154.05. The tensions between Greece and its creditors are causing a delay in concluding the bailout program for Greece. The country needed to present fiscal and economic reforms in line with the Eurozone premiers’ expectations. This will save Greece from defaulting as it nears the expiration of the current bailout by the end of June 2015.
Gold was flat on hopes that weakness in the economy would persuade the Federal Reserve to delay their monetary tightening policy until after summer. A hike in the interest rates would be bearish for non-interest bearing commodities like gold which rely on changes in prices for profit. Market analysts are banking on the rally in gold prices to continue with the US economy expected to remain weak for some time.
Commodity prices tumbled as a resurgent dollar and concerns about weakness in China’s economy pushed investors out of everything from crude oil to copper and corn.
A surprise jump in the U.S. housing starts of 20.2% in April has arrested some fear that the U.S. economic growth has stalled in Q2 especially after a weaker than expected April retail sales and an eight-point plunge in the consumer confidence in May. The ECB recently caused a stir in the market. The ECB released to a few people before the public announcement of its plan to front-load its QE in May and June before the drop in the market liquidity in the summer. The euro plunged over 2.6% in the past two days as a larger than expected European QE is bearish for the euro.
While the gold traders are keenly waiting the April U.S. FOMC minutes on Wednesday for clues whether the Fed will raise rates this year, the fact remains that the global growth outlook has not improved much. The U.S. Q2 growth expectation has been reduced.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Precious in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|AUD||RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks|
|JPY||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||2.4%||1.5%||1.1%|
|JPY||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.6%||0.4%||0.3%|
|AUD||Westpac Consumer Sentiment (May)||6.4%||-3.2%|
|EUR||German PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.1%||0.2%||0.1%|
|GBP||BoE MPC vote cut (May)||0||0||0|
|GBP||BoE MPC vote hike (May)||0||0||0|
|GBP||BoE MPC vote unchanged (May)||9||9||9|
|GBP||BoE MPC Meeting Minutes|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Thursday, May 21, 2015
|CNY||HSBC Manufacturing PMI||49.3||48.9|
|EUR||German Manufacturing PMI||52.3||52.1|
|GBP||Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)||0.4%||-0.5%|
|USD||Existing Home Sales (Apr)||5.24M||5.19M|
|USD||Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing||8.0||7.5|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
Precious analysis forecast
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