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Industrial and Base Metals Analysis Forecast, June 05, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Metals Thursday BnsAnalysis and Recommendations (Industrial Forecast):

Copper fell 28 points today to touch its lowest level in month. Copper is trading at 2.698 paying very little attention to the decline in the US as traders focus on the comments from the OECD report. Palladium dipped $1.30 taking its cues from the metals family.  Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to weak global cues as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its global growth forecast and low demand from consuming industries at spot market hurt.

Copper is trading either side of the $6,000 level, it has broken below the uptrend line that has underpinned the lows since February, but seems to be finding some support below $6,000 – the other base metals also seem to be finding good underlying support, especially lead. Whether this support is coming from the weaker dollar remains to be seen, the markets continue to look vulnerable though, but if inflation is starting to pick up in Europe then perhaps the outlook for the economy is improving and that could start to boost confidence. Countering that, however, was the OECD’s cut to its forecast for global growth to 3.1 percent from earlier forecasts of 3.7 percent. On balance, we feel those metals like aluminium and nickel that have already fallen sharply will now consolidate, while those still fairly elevated may well struggle on the upside and could fall back further to retest support levels.

 ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.0%

0.4%

0.2%

   

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

-3.888B

-2.250B

-1.231B

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index

-0.1%

0.3%

1.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index

8.6%

8.5%

8.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (Jun)

 

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

0.50%

0.50%

   

 Copper(60 minutes)20150604042955

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, June 05, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

 

225K

223K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (May)

 

5.4%

5.4%

 

 

  CAD

 

Employment Change (May)

 

10.0K

-19.7K

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 10 Jun

Jun 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 June

Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June

Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt

Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun

 

Industrial analysis forecast

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