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Industrial and Base Metals Analysis Forecast – June 10, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – June 10, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – June 10, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Analysis and Recommendations (Industrial Forecast):

Copper soared on the hopes of Chinese stimulus today adding 26 points to trade at 2.722 while Palladium moved just 15 points to 743.90. Analysts said gains in copper and other metals overseas after weaker-than-estimated inflation data from China bolstered the case for further stimulus influenced copper prices in futures trade here. The copper market has been in a funk during the past several months, as rising supply and a softening Chinese economy have put a lid on prices. Experts are generally optimistic that the market will rebound in the years ahead, but there is disagreement over how strong that turnaround will be, and when it will happen.

Wood Mackenzie Ltd., an influential consultancy in the resource space, thinks spot copper prices will be stuck in a range of roughly US$2.70 to US$2.80 a pound through 2017, which is where they are now.

Desjardins Securities is a little more optimistic, as it expects an average price of US$3 in each of 2016 and 2017. Analyst Jackie Przybylowski thinks there are likely to be more disruptions to mine production this year than Wood Mackenzie expects. Wood Mackenzie is assuming just one million tonnes in its “disruption allowance,” and there have already been about 400,000 tonnes of disruptions identified to date.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)

0.0%

1.0%

-2.4%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Apr)

1.0%

-2.0%

1.5%

   

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (May)

7

 

3

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (May)

-0.2%

0.0%

-0.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

1.2%

1.3%

1.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (May)

-4.6%

-4.5%

-4.6%

 

 

  CHF

 

Unemployment Rate (May)

3.3%

3.3%

3.3%

 

 

  CHF

 

CPI (MoM) (May)

0.2%

0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

 -8.56B

-9.90B

-10.70B

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Apr)

 -2.09B

-3.00B

-3.43B

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  

 0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (YoY) (Q1)  

 1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

   

 copper tues

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, June 10, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Stock

 

 

1.800M

 

 

  AUD

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

 

 

6.4%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

 

0.1%

0.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production

 

0.1%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

 

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

-1.948M

 

 

  USD

 

Federal Budget Balance (May)

 

-97.5B

157.0B

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn 0% Jun 2017 Schatz

Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June

Jun 10 19:00 US USD 21bn 10 year Note auction

Jun 11 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% Jun 2019 & Sek 0.5bn 0.25% Kim 2022

Jun 11 11:30 Ireland Eur 750mn 2.4% May 2030 IGBs

Jun 11 11:30 UK Gbp 2bn 3.5% Jan 2045 Conventional Gilt

Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun

Jun 11 19:00 US USD 13bn 30 year bonds

Jun 15 00:00 UK New 30 year I/L syndicated Gilt auction

Jun 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 17 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

Jun 18 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligations

Jun 18 11:10 France Auctions BTANs

Jun 18 12:10 France Auctions OATi

Jun 18 17:00 US Details 2-year FRNs

Jun 18 17:00 US Announces details of 2/5/7 year notes

Jun 18 18:00 US Auctions 30-year TIPs sale on 24 Jun

 

Industrial analysis forecast

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