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Industrial and Base Metals Analysis Forecast, May 14, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Metals Wednesday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations (Industrial Forecast):

Copper gained 4 points to trade at 2.936 touching its highest point as data from China disappointed and will most likely force the government and the central bank to add more stimulus. Chinese industrial production printed at 5.9% against a forecast of 6.0% while new loans also missed target along with fixed asset investments. Palladium added $1.85 as strong auto sales data supported the metal.  Palladium prices posted their biggest loss in more than a month on Monday as soft passenger-car sales in China added to concerns over the nation’s cooling economy.

Copper edged back up to a one-week high on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected readings on China’s economy fuelled hopes of further easing in the world’s top metals user, soothing concerns over copper demand.

China’s factory output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales all missed estimates, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will have to ramp up its efforts to boost its cooling economy.

And there are signs that Chinese steps on the economy may already be having an effect. Executives at nearly a dozen listed Chinese developers say they will ramp up investment in property this year thanks to interest rate cuts already announced by Beijing.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account n.s.a. (Mar)

2.795T

2.060T

1.440T

 

 

  AUD

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)

0.5%

0.6%

0.6%

 

 

  CNY

 

Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)

12.0%

13.5%

13.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

Industrial Production (YoY)

5.9%

6.0%

5.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Apr)

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (YoY) (Q1)  

1.1%

1.2%

1.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  

0.3%

0.5%

0.7%

 

 

  CNY

 

New Loans (Apr)

707.9B

903.0B

1,180.0B

 

 

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus

1.9%

1.7%

1.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (Apr)

-12.6K

-20.0K

-16.7K

   

  GBP

 

Unemployment Rate (Mar)

5.5%

5.5%

5.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  

 

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

  EUR

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

 

0.2%

1.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Inflation Report

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

Monetary Policy Meeting  

 

       

 copper wed

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Business NZ PMI (Apr)

 

 

54.5

 

 

  NZD

 

Core Retail Sales (QoQ)

 

1.5%

1.5%

 

 

  NZD

 

Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1)

 

1.5%

1.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

RICS House Price Balance (Apr)

 

22%

21%

 

 

  CNY

 

New Loans

 

1,210.0B

1,180.0B

 

 

  USD

 

Core PPI (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.1%

0.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

275K

265K

 

 

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.2%

0.2%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

 

Industrial analysis forecast

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