Industrial and Base Metals Analysis Forecast, May 15, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Analysis and Recommendations (Copper Forecast):

Copper dipped 15 points as traders booked profits after copper hit its highest level in month. Traders are hoping for more stimulus from the Chinese to support the metal which remains strong at 2.914. Palladium dipped $5.90 as global growth numbers are being downgraded and Chinese auto sales continue to fall.

In April, Chinese copper imports declined 4.4 percent year-on-year. But imports of refined copper, copper alloys and semi-finished copper products were almost 430,000 ton in April, the highest monthly imports in a year, up 4.9 percent from 410,000 tons in March, according to a Reuters report.

“China’s trade data suggest its copper demand will remain pretty healthy,” Nic Brown, head of commodities research at Natixis, told Reuters Friday. “But we’re going to see it predominantly in terms of imports of concentrate, which remain solid. Imports of refined copper are solid without being spectacular,” Brown said.

Meanwhile, many investors are still expecting Chinese government to launch more fiscal stimulus policies. China, the world’s largest consumer of copper, announced continued stimulus, or easing programs, during the last two weeks, helping to boost prices to a new high for the year. Though the Chinese economy has shown signs of slowing, plans to stimulate or speed consumption could wake up massive demand if China resumes the economic expansion of the past few years. U.S. consumption has stabilized since low interest rates have enabled more homes and auto demand, the two sectors that require supplies of the red metal.

Just as demand seems to be picking up, copper mines, especially in Chile, have experienced production problems related to labor disputes adding to fears that supply will fall short of demand. The U.S. dollar and unemployment figures could become especially important in determining price direction next month.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for Copper in our weekly reports.


Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD Business NZ PMI (Apr) 54.5
  NZD Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 2.9% 1.5% 1.9%
  NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 2.7% 1.5% 1.7%
  GBP RICS House Price Balance (Apr) 33% 22% 22%


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in for Copper forex trading:

Friday, May 15, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  CHF PPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% 0.2%
  USD NY Empire State Manufacturing 5.00 -1.19
  CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 7.23B 9.27B
  CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 1.2% -1.7%
  USD Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% -0.6%
  USD Michigan Consumer 88.6 88.8

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

Industrial analysis forecast


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