Industrial and Base Metals Analysis Forecast, May 18, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Analysis and Recommendations (Copper Forecast):

Copper dipped 22 points to trade at 2.901 as China took no steps to add stimulus as markets had hoped. Palladium was up $3.80 to 783.30 as global auto sales continued to fall. Palladium was set for a weekly decline. Analysts said a weak trend in copper overseas and sluggish demand at domestic spot market, mainly weighed on metal prices at futures trade here.

Copper prices dipped as weak economic data from dominated sentiment, but a weaker US dollar and expectations of further Chinese economic stimulus helped limit the losses. China’s investment growth rate sank to its lowest in nearly 15 years as April data showed the economy still losing momentum.

“There are a lot of worrying signs in the data. There’s a real issue about getting the cash to where it’s needed to generate growth and demand for base metals,” VTB Capital analyst Wiktor Bielski said. ”The real estate portion of the fixed asset investment number has been below the headline for quite some time, but the infrastructure element was higher, which will help support demand for metals.”

Fixed-asset investment is a crucial driver of growth in China. It rose 12 per cent in January to April, the slowest pace since December 2000 and compared with a consensus for a 13.5 per cent gain. The weaker dollar and the cancellation of 25,000 tonnes of LME copper inventories over the past two days helped support the market, said Richard Fu, director of Asian commodities trading for Societe Generale Newedge in London.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for Copper in our weekly reports.

copper  technical analysis chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  CHF PPI (MoM) (Apr) -2.1% -0.1% 0.2%
  USD NY Empire State Manufacturing   5.00 -1.19  
  USD Industrial Production (MoM)   0.1% -0.6%  
  USD Michigan Consumer   88.6 88.8  

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for Copper in forex trading:

Monday, May 18, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.3%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.7%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May


Copper analysis forecast


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