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Industrial and Base Metals Analysis Forecast, May 19, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Analysis and Recommendations (Industrial And Base Metals Forecast for 19 May):

Copper eased by 11 points but remained flat after the initial dip to 2.914 while Palladium fell $2.95 trading at 792.00 Copper was steady at the start of the trading week on Monday, supported by a softer dollar following weak U.S. economic data. Copper has been consolidating since hitting this year’s high of $6,481 per tonne in early May, with no big spike in demand from top consumer China despite efforts by the government to shore up economic activity.

“Longer term, I don’t expect much demand increase from China. Their housing isn’t really doing very well and that’s where most of demand goes to,” said Daniel Ang, an analyst at Phillip Futures.

Chinese new home prices fell for the eighth straight month in April from a year earlier, with analysts warning that any recovery will take some time amid a huge inventory of unsold homes and a slump in real estate investment growth to the lowest since the global financial crisis.

Copper has been consolidating since hitting this year’s high of $6,481 per tonne in early May, with no big spike in demand from top consumer China despite efforts by the government to shore up economic activity.

“Longer term, I don’t expect much demand increase from China. Their housing isn’t really doing very well and that’s where most of demand goes to,” said Daniel Ang, an analyst at Phillip Futures.

Chinese new home prices fell for the eighth straight month in April from a year earlier, with analysts warning that any recovery will take some time amid a huge inventory of unsold homes and a slump in real estate investment growth to the lowest since the global financial crisis.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.8% -0.3% -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index -1.0% -0.5% 0.4%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.8% -2.0% -3.1%

 copper mon

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Monetary Policy Minutes
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Apr)
  EUR German ZEW Economic 49.0 53.3
  EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.0% 0.0%
  USD Building Permits (Apr) 1.065M 1.042M
  CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

Industrial analysis forecast

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