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Industrial and Base Metals Analysis Forecast, May 22, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Metals Thursday BnsAnalysis and Recommendations (Industrial Forecast):

Copper recovered 15 points to 2.844 but remains weak after a lackluster Chinese HSBC PMI print. Traders are hoping for an injection of stimulus from the Chinese and are therefore the metals are trading in the green. Palladium gained $2.15 to 779.00 still well below the $800 price levels of just a week ago. China’s central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates further in coming months, on top of three reductions since November, and may also lower banks’ reserve requirements again to reduce companies’ borrowing costs and encourage more lending.

Copper moved higher on Thursday, bouncing off the previous session’s three-week low after another soft Chinese manufacturing report suggested Beijing may have to do more to stimulate the world’s No. 2 economy.

Chinese factory activity contracted for the third month in May and output shrank at the fastest rate in just over a year, a private survey showed. But the flash HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved slightly to 49.1 from 48.9 in April.

“The fact that the PMI is higher than the previous number suggests that going forward we can expect some improvement in the Chinese economy and that’s supportive of metals prices,” said Phillip Futures analyst Daniel Ang.  

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

49.1

49.3

48.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI

51.4

52.3

52.1

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (May)  

52.9

53.9

54.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (May)  

52.3

52.0

52.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (May)  

53.4

53.8

53.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (May)  

53.3

53.9

54.1

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

1.2%

0.3%

0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

4.7%

3.7%

4.8%

   

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

1.2%

0.4%

-0.7%

   

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

4.7%

3.8%

4.0%

   

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders

-5

3

1

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting  

 

 

 

   

 copper thurs

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 22, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index (May)

 

108.3

108.6

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.2%

0.6%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

 

0.4%

2.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

Industrial analysis forecast

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