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Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis, May 11, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Metals Friday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Copper gained 4 points today to trade at 2.922 keeping its momentum from earlier this week as traders prepare for stimulus from China after a week of lackluster data. Palladium gained $1.95 to 787.70.  Traders said buyers of refined copper in top metals consumer China have reduced spot purchases this week after domestic prices rose and in a slowing economy local demand is not expected to increase strongly in the near term.

Copper was supported by expectations of further stimulus to boost economic growth in top consumer China, but gains were capped by equity market losses and a stronger dollar. “Metals are looking for direction from the PBOC (China’s central bank),” said Oliver Fry, a portfolio manager at Ebullio Capital Management. “We expect more action.”

China’s central bank has already eased monetary policy by cutting interest rates and reducing the amount banks must hold as cash to try to spur bank lending. Some expect China to resort to fiscal stimulus.

However, pressure on prices for industrial metals came from the dollar, which was up after earlier losses, making commodities more expensive for non-U.S. buyers.

Worries about growth and higher oil prices, meanwhile, weighed on equities.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Monetary Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (Apr)

-6.4%

2.4%

-15.0%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (Apr)

-16.2%

-12.0%

-12.7%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

34.13B

39.45B

3.08B

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production

-0.5%

0.4%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Mar)

19.3B

20.0B

20.0B

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (YoY)

8.5%

7.8%

8.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index

1.6%

0.4%

0.6%

   

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Mar)

 

-9.80B

-10.34B

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar)

 

-2.95B

-3.24B

   

 copper fri

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 11, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Russia – Victory Day

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (Apr)

 

 

3

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (May)

 

 

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 

0.50%

0.50%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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