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Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis, May 12, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Metal Monday BnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Copper dipped 6 points against a stronger dollar to trade at 2.914 just at about Friday’s price after soaring on expectations of stimulus from China. The interest rate decrease announced over the weekend was not exactly what traders were hoping for, but is still supporting the metals. Palladium fell almost $10 as auto sales are declining in China faster than expected reducing the demand for the unique metal. Copper slid a second day, shrugging off China’s bid to boost growth with a third interest rate cut in six months in the world’s largest consumer of the metal.

Copper entered a bull market last week and rose to the highest since December amid speculation China’s policy makers would add stimulus and on signs that supply is tightening. While prices slipped 0.6 percent in the last two days, the metal has rallied 18 percent from a five-year low in January.

“With the slowing data, the market is just going to stand back,” said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. “The import numbers were quite weak. Any rate cut now won’t start to impact demand until beyond next month.”

The People’s Bank of China cut the one-year lending rate 0.25 percentage points to 5.1 percent. The move, announced Sunday and effective Monday, came after the nation’s imports and exports both fell in April.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

ECB’s Nowotny Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (May)

 375B

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

   

 Copper(15 minutes)20150511091436

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)

 

 

3.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Mar)

 

1.0%

1.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

 

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production

 

0.3%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings (Mar)

 

5.085M

5.133M

 

 

  USD

 

Federal Budget Balance (Apr)

 

146.5B

-53.0B

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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