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Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis, May 13, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Analysis and Recommendations (Copper, Palladium Forecast):

Copper soared to 2.931 as market sentiment shifted. Palladium gained $3.25 to reach 783.70. China, the world’s largest consumer of copper, announced continued stimulus, or easing programs, during the last two weeks, helping to boost prices to a new high for the year. Though the Chinese economy has shown signs of slowing, plans to stimulate or speed consumption could wake up massive demand if China resumes the economic expansion of the past few years. US consumption has stabilized since low interest rates have enabled more homes and auto demand, the two sectors that require supplies of the red metal.

Just as demand seems to be picking up, copper mines, especially in Chile, have experienced production problems related to labor disputes adding to fears that supply will fall short of demand. The US dollar and unemployment figures could become especially important in determining price direction next month.

The copper futures contract consists of 25,000 pounds of high grade electrolytic copper cathodes.

Base metals prices fell across the board yesterday but with the exception of zinc and lead the price declines were rather small. As regards recent data released in China, though trade data painted a rather grim picture of a current state of the economy, copper imports indicated that the demand for the red metal remains healthy. Still, the price of copper has been trading sideways in the past couple of sessions as it showed no significant response to further easing of China’s monetary policy either -Sunday’s rate cut was in line with expectations.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for copper in our weekly reports.

copper tues

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.6% 1.0% 1.1%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.434% 0.369%
  GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
  GBP Manufacturing Production 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
  GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.6%
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) 5.085M 5.133M

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Cur.   Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Adjusted Current Account 1.34T 0.60T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 6.0% 5.6%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% -0.1%
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.7%
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) -20.0K -20.7K
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.5% 5.6%
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.3%
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% 1.1%
  GBP BoE Inflation Report
  EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
  USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% 0.4%
  USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.9%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.882M

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 08:10 Dutch Eur 2-3bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

May 12 09:15 Norway Eur 4bn 4.5% May 2019 bond

May 12 09:30 Germany Eur 1bn 0.1% Apr 2026 I/L Bund

May 12 17:00 US USD 24bn 3-year notes

May 13 09:10 Italy Eur 2.5-3bn 0.25% May 2018 & Eur 2-2.5bn 1.35% Apr 2022

BTPs, plus Eur 1-1.5bn 1.65% Mar 2032 & 3.25% Sep 2046

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.5% Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 13 17:00 US USD 24bn 10-year notes

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Copper Forecast 2015

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