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Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis May 5, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Metal Monday BnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Copper gave up some of its gains after soaring last week to trade at 2.912 down by 17 points as traders hoped for stimulus from the PBOC. Palladium gained $2.45. Chinese demand for a wide range of commodities has been surprisingly strong this year despite worsening economic data, raising questions over how long the demand recovery can last. For the first three months of the year, oil demand grew an annual 7.7 percent, its biggest gain in over two years while March iron ore imports soared 18.5 percent on month, snapping a two-month run of declines. Imports of refined copper metal rose to a four-month high last month, building on an 11.4 percent gain in copper consumption in February.

Commodities mostly rose this week in holiday-shortened trade, with oil and base metal prices rebounding as the dollar sank on weak US economic growth and the uncertain interest rate outlook. The world’s biggest economy posted first quarter GDP growth of just 0.2 percent, well below the 1.0 percent rate forecast by analysts and sharply down from the 2.2 percent pace in the previous three months. “On the macroeconomic front, we received poor US economic data which added further pressure to the US dollar,” noted Sucden analyst Myrto Sokou.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday

  CNY

 

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

48.9

49.4

49.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI

 

51.9

51.9

   

 copper palladium monday

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 

2.00%

2.25%

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Apr)

 

57.5

57.8

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

56.5

56.5

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

May 06 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 06 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 07 11:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Ma

 

 

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