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Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis, May 6, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Metals Tuesday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

Copper continues to gain as traders are expecting a stimulus program from the Chinese central bank this week. Copper added 6 points to 2.927.Palladium dipped $1.85 as traders worry about lackluster data weighing on global auto sales. Base metals recovered from a six-week low amid speculation weakening economic growth will prompt officials in China to bolster stimulus. Huatai Securities Co. and Tebon Securities Co. raised margin requirement for margin trading and short selling to control risks, Shanghai Securities News reported, without citing anyone. Haitong also cut the amount that clients could use securities as collateral for margin trading and short selling.

Base metals are consolidating after a strong run higher last week, on average prices are off 0.5 percent led by a one percent pullback in copper to $6,363. Conversely precious metals are stronger by an average of 1.4 percent led by 1.9 percent gains in silver and platinum, while gold is up 0.9 percent at $1,188.50 and that is despite a firmer dollar.

In Shanghai, the July base metals contracts are off an average of 0.2 percent, with only nickel and copper stronger, while the rest are weaker. Copper is up 0.4 percent while spot copper in Changjiang is up 0.2 percent the backwardation with the futures is at an equivalent of some $60 percent tonne, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at around 1 to 7.16.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Mar)

-1.322B

-1.000B

-1.609B

   

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

2.00%

2.00%

2.25%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish Unemployment

-118.9K

-64.8K

-60.2K

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Apr)

 

57.5

57.8

   

 copper palladium tuesday

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.8%

1.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

 

0.4%

0.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Apr)

 

58.5

58.9

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment

 

200K

189K

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Apr)

 

49.2

47.9

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 09:15 Austria Eur 1.1bn 3.5% Sep 2021

May 06 09:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 3.5% Jun 2022

May 06 09:10 Greece Eur 0.875bn 6 month (Nov 2015) T-bills

May 06 09:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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