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Industrial and Base Metals Weekly Analysis Forecast, May 18-22, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations (Industrial Forecast):

Copper ended the week with a small increase on hopes of stimulus from the Peoples Bank of China to trade at 2.93 at the close.  Palladium gained on Friday to end the week on an uptick adding 13.50 to close at 793.00.

Copper prices edged into positive territory on Friday as a slightly weaker dollar balanced worries that a recent rally as overshooting the supply-demand fundamentals.

Most industrial metals fell earlier in the European session, but erased their losses as the dollar slipped after downbeat US data. A weaker dollar boosts the purchasing power of commodities buyers holding other currencies.

The dollar came under pressure after US consumer sentiment fell more than expected in May and industrial output dropped for a fifth straight month in April.

China’s interest rate cut at the weekend was the most recent in a string of measures to shore up a property sector whose slowdown has dragged on economic growth and demand for metals.

“There’s still a good long-term story to copper, given the lack of supply from around 2017 but I wouldn’t necessarily be chasing copper too hard at these levels,” said analyst Dan Morgan at UBS in Sydney.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

copper week

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring

Cur. Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Monday, May 18, 2015

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

  AUD Monetary Meeting Minutes

 

  GBP CPI (YoY)

 

  EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

49.0

53.3

  EUR CPI (YoY)

 

0.0%

0.0%

  USD Building Permits (Apr)

 

1.065M

1.042M

  CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

 

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

  GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Thursday, May 21, 2015

  CNY HSBC Manufacturing

 

49.4

48.9

  EUR German Manufacturing

 

52.3

52.1

  GBP Retail Sales

 

0.4%

-0.5%

  USD Existing Home Sales

 

5.24M

5.19M

  USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing

 

8.2

7.5

Friday, May 22, 2015

  EUR German GDP

 

0.3%

0.3%

  EUR German Manufacturing

 

52.1

  EUR German Ifo Business

 

108.3

108.6

  USD Core CPI

 

0.2%

0.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

Industrial analysis forecast

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