Natural Gas Analysis Forecast, May 19, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (Natural Gas Forecast):

Natural Gas gave back some of its gains on Friday but remained strong, just under the $3 level at 2.9970. Natural-gas price soared to a nearly four-month high, bolstered by rising demand from power generators that are pivoting away from coal. This year, utilities will retire 4.3% of the nation’s coal-fired electricity-generation capacity that is either outdated or unable to meet new environmental regulations. Thanks to the cooler spring weather northern point of nation is experiencing, the demand for natural gas has witnessed a little boost.  The line of cool weather is expected to travel down to Texas and other states in the southern region of the U.S. sometime this week and next week.  This will also help cool off warmer parts of the nation, but will also keep the demand for natural gas low.

The small increase in storage is believed to be due to lower natural gas production in the nation’s prominent shale plays.  Earlier this week, the EIA released its drilling productivity report, which said, “It expects natural gas production to drop by 112 million cubic feet per day in June.”

The EIA published the natural gas storage report on May 14, 2015. The weekly gas in storage increased by 111 Bcf in the week ending May 8. Market consensus had been for an increase of 117 Bcf during this period. The lower-than-expected inventory increase supported the natural gas price increase. The gas stockpile increased by 76 Bcf in the week ending May 1. Warmer weather forecasts across central and eastern parts of the United States in the second half of May 2015 also supported the natural gas rally. Cooling needs will drive the demand for natural gas from electrical power plants.

This is the fifth up day in the last ten days. Prices gained 1.85% more on the up days than on the average down days in this period. June natural gas futures ruled the chart against other commodities on yesterday’s trading. Gas prices increased by 0.59% YTD (year-to-date), led by the warmer weather forecasts.

AccuWeather US Forecast Outlook:

The Northeast will catch a break from summer warmth this week, but temperatures should rebound in most areas for Memorial Day, the unofficial start to summer. The warmth overspreading much of the Northeast this weekend will not last through the week. For the majority of New England, southeastern New York and eastern New Jersey, an end to the warmth will come with the weekend. Cooler air from the northeast, arriving via the backdoor cold front that will first keep eastern Maine cool on Sunday, will bring noticeable cooling to Portland, Boston and New York City. About 10 to 15 degrees will get shaved off Sunday’s highs for Monday.

Monday’s highs across New Jersey will likely occur in the morning before the cooler air returns and causes temperatures to fall or hold steady.

A more widespread sweep of cooler air will erase all of the summer warmth and humidity from the Northeast at midweek. Temperatures will then be kept at bay through the start of the Memorial Day holiday weekend with a fresh shot of cool air to follow later in the week.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Natural Gas in our weekly reports.




Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.8% -0.3% -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index -1.0% -0.5% 0.4%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.8% -2.0% -3.1%


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for Natural Gas in forex trading:

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Monetary Policy Minutes
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Apr)
  EUR German ZEW Economic 49.0 53.3
  EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.0% 0.0%
  USD Building Permits (Apr) 1.065M 1.042M
  CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May


Natural analysis forecast


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