Analysis and Recommendations (Natural Forecast):
Natural Gas added 18 points to trade at 2.966 after falling on Tuesday as traders booked profits after the commodity soared above the $3 level. According to NatGasWeather.com, natural gas demand in the US will be very low to low, compared to normal, through May 25th, with overall bearish headwinds set to persist through the following seven days as well.
Warm weather has engulfed the Great Lakes and East Coast, with highs reaching the 70s and 80s, while readings over the Southeast and the immediate Atlantic Coast max out in the mid 80s and lower 90s, driving moderate demand for cooling. However, a weather system currently passing through the north-central US will bring heavy showers and thunderstorms, including deep into Texas and the South. As the week progresses, the system will also lower temperatures to a few degrees below normal across the North and Mid-Atlantic coast, followed by a stronger blast on Thursday and Friday and a warm-up during the weekend. The West will continue to be impacted by arriving Pacific systems.
Next week, active weather in a typical spring fashion will remain in force. Prices rallied last week after the Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday that US natural gas inventories rose by 111 billion cubic feet in the week ended May 8th, below analysts’ consensus forecast of 116 bcf. Despite the comfortable readings, analysts attributed the surprisingly low build to a drop in production due to maintenance, as well as stronger exports.
AccuWeather US Forecast Outlook:
The Northeast will catch a break from summer warmth this week, but temperatures should rebound in most areas for Memorial Day, the unofficial start to summer. The warmth overspreading much of the Northeast this weekend will not last through the week. For the majority of New England, southeastern New York and eastern New Jersey, an end to the warmth will come with the weekend. Cooler air from the northeast, arriving via the backdoor cold front that will first keep eastern Maine cool on Sunday, will bring noticeable cooling to Portland, Boston and New York City. About 10 to 15 degrees will get shaved off Sunday’s highs for Monday.
Monday’s highs across New Jersey will likely occur in the morning before the cooler air returns and causes temperatures to fall or hold steady.
A more widespread sweep of cooler air will erase all of the summer warmth and humidity from the Northeast at midweek. Temperatures will then be kept at bay through the start of the Memorial Day holiday weekend with a fresh shot of cool air to follow later in the week.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Natural in our weekly reports.
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Natural analysis forecast
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