Analysis and Recommendations (Natural Forecast):
Natural Gas added 35 points to trade at 2.951 remaining below its $3 level for the week as traders wait for this afternoon’s weekly inventory. Natural gas futures gained for the first time in four days on forecasts for late-spring heat that would boost power demand.
Temperatures will be higher than average in the eastern third of the U.S. from May 26 through June 4, MDA Weather Services said. Futures have advanced 21 percent since dropping to a 34-month low of $2.443 per million British thermal units on April 27.
The EIA is likely to report that gas storage levels grew by 97 billion cubic feet during the week ended May 15, according to the average forecast of 16 analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That is smaller than 106-bcf addition last year but larger than the 89-bcf five-year average addition.
Weekly surpluses are likely to be larger than average for many weeks to come and the country is on pace to have a “bumper” 3.8 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage before winter, Energy Aspects said in a note Wednesday. That would cap prices at $3.10/MMBtu–a level that would prompt more power producers to switch to burning coal–and make $2.60/MMBtu a target for the summer, the energy research firm said.
AccuWeather US Forecast Outlook:
The Northeast will catch a break from summer warmth this week, but temperatures should rebound in most areas for Memorial Day, the unofficial start to summer. The warmth overspreading much of the Northeast this weekend will not last through the week. For the majority of New England, southeastern New York and eastern New Jersey, an end to the warmth will come with the weekend. Cooler air from the northeast, arriving via the backdoor cold front that will first keep eastern Maine cool on Sunday, will bring noticeable cooling to Portland, Boston and New York City. About 10 to 15 degrees will get shaved off Sunday’s highs for Monday.
Monday’s highs across New Jersey will likely occur in the morning before the cooler air returns and causes temperatures to fall or hold steady.
A more widespread sweep of cooler air will erase all of the summer warmth and humidity from the Northeast at midweek. Temperatures will then be kept at bay through the start of the Memorial Day holiday weekend with a fresh shot of cool air to follow later in the week.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Natural in our weekly reports.
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Natural analysis forecast
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