Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis, May 11, 2015 – Forecast

natural gas friday bnsnlaAnalysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  added 2 points as traders held prices after Thursday’s week inventory report. NG is exchanging at 2.736. Spring weather is bringing warmer temperatures to the northern and eastern United States. Showers and thunderstorms are also spreading across parts of the country, but temperatures are not expected to slide. Demand for natural gas for heating is expected to be low this week and likely to be very low next week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday morning that U.S. natural gas stocks increased by 76 billion cubic feet for the week ending May 1. Analysts expected a storage injection (increase) of 73 billion cubic feet. The five-year average for the week is an increase of around 68 billion cubic feet.

Natural gas traded up about 1% in advance of the EIA’s report, at around $2.80 per million BTUs, and slipped to around $2.76 (down about 0.1% for the day) following release of the report. Last Thursday, natural gas closed at $2.75 per million BTUs, and natural gas futures have increased by about 2.5% over the past five trading days. The 52-week low for natural gas futures is $2.48. One year ago the price for a million BTUs was around $4.20.

AccuWeather US Forecast Outlook:

Following a dip in temperature during the middle of the week, summerlike warmth will rebound across much of the Northeast by this weekend.

Clouds with showers and thunderstorms will take the edge off the warmth that surged in to start the week. The moisture is associated with a cool front that will stall and erode at midweek, resulting in only spotty rainfall.

However, Mother Nature will be turning up the thermostat a bit more starting late this week.

High pressure will build at most levels of the atmosphere late this week and into the weekend. The high will keep a budding tropical system at bay along the southern Atlantic coast. According to Meteorologist Ben Noll, “This will be a summer weather regime in much of the Northeast this weekend with temperatures 10-20 degrees above average for this time of the year.”

People will be able to ditch umbrellas and break out the sunglasses, shorts and short sleeves just like they did this past weekend and early this week.

Only northern New England will miss out on the warmth, relative to the rest of the region, due to more persistent clouds and spotty showers.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.


Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

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