Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis May 5, 2015 – Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Natural Gas gave back some of its gains to trade at 2.753 down by 24 points as the weather picture turned just perfect. Oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. says the number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. declined by 34 this week to 954 amid depressed oil prices.
Houston-based Baker Hughes said Friday 734 rigs were seeking oil and 217 explored for natural gas. Three were listed as miscellaneous. A year ago, 1,831 rigs were active. Among major oil- and gas-producing states, Texas plummeted by 15 rigs; Oklahoma was down six; North Dakota lost five; Wyoming was down four; and California, Kansas and Pennsylvania each dropped two. Alaska, Arkansas, Ohio and Utah declined by one each. Canada’s overall rig count was unchanged from a week ago at 79. A 1-unit gain in oil rigs to 17 was offset by a 1-unit decline in gas rigs to 62. Last week’s total of 16 oil rigs was the country’s lowest since Apr. 24, 2009.
Natural gas fell today, snapping four straight session of gains, as weather forecasts saw no significant changes over the weekend, calling for widespread mild conditions across the US.
Thursday’s jump came as the Energy Information Administration released a slightly bullish inventory report. The government agency said that US natural gas stockpiles rose by 81 billion cubic feet in the week ended April 24th, below analysts’ median estimate of +85 bcf. The five-year average gain for the period was +55 bcf, while supplies rose by 77 bcf during the comparable period a year earlier.
Total gas held in US storage hubs amounted to 1.710 trillion cubic feet, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average of 1.785 trillion to 4.2%, or 75 bcf, from 5.8% a week earlier. Inventories were at a surplus of 76.5% compared to year-ago stockpiles of 969 bcf.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
AccuWeather US Forecast Outlook:
This summer, warmth and dryness will build in the West, worsening the historical drought conditions that have plagued California for four straight years. Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast will have an abundance of moisture, raising concerns for flooding at times.
In the nation’s midsection, severe weather is forecast to continue into summer, with the overall tornado count increasing from last year. In the Northeast, above-normal temperatures will mark a noticeable difference from the cooler-than-average summer of 2014.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)