Weekly Analysis and Recommendation (Natural Gas Analysis Forecast)
Natural Gas surprised traders breaking the $3 level as warm weather kicked off residential demand for air conditioning use and a lower inventory helped support the commodity. The week closed at 3.017.
Many investors believed gas prices would continue falling because U.S. output is hitting records and the amount of gas in storage is building rapidly.
But then, some signs appeared, pointing to the contrary. That made some bearish investors nervous, and those investors bought gas futures to close out bearish bets. This, in turn, made others nervous and what started as a trickle became a deluge that sent prices soaring.
In the natural-gas market, other catalysts for the reversal stemmed from the prospect of increased power-sector demand. (Many power plants use natural gas to generate electricity.) Two nuclear power plants have had outages, and an early start to summer caused increased demand to power air conditioners and a critical period is coming in a long-term switch away from coal-fired power.
Natural-gas prices recently were 2.1 cents, or 0.7%, higher at $3.028 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures spent most of the day in negative territory on warnings that prices are now precariously high.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday morning that U.S. natural gas stocks increased by 111 billion cubic feet for the week ending May 1. Analysts expected a storage injection of around 125 billion cubic feet. The five-year average for the week is an increase of around 85 billion cubic feet.
AccuWeather US Forecast Outlook:
The combination of a cool front swinging in from the Midwest and moisture from a diminishing Ana will bring an end to the summerlike weather in the Northeast early in the new week.
Minor travel delays are possible in parts of the Northeast Monday and Tuesday, following several days of warm and tranquil weather.
Following a Mother’s Day weekend in which many areas will experience high temperatures in the 80s under strong sunshine, increasing moisture will lead to an uptick in showers and thunderstorms from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday.
Monday will be more active than Tuesday across the mid-Atlantic.
The July-like pattern will deliver AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures in the 90s in many cities during the afternoon hours.
At first into Sunday evening, thunderstorms will be very spotty in nature. However, an increasing southerly flow of air ahead of the front will help to draw leftover moisture from Ana northward along the mid-Atlantic coast by Monday.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for natural gas in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to Present
Highest: 6.49 on February 2014
Average: 3.307 over this period
Lowest: 1.902 on Apr 20, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
- Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
- Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Natural analysis forecast
REGISTER WITH OUR FORUM AND POST AT LEAST ONE MESSAGE TO GET FREE SIGNALS