Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis, May 11 – 15, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation (Natural Gas Forecast):

Natural Gas rallied 136 points to trade at 2.870 after a lower than expected inventory report and the upturn in temperatures across the US as summer weather came earlier than expected.  Gas stockpiles rose more than the five-year average throughout April and a government report Thursday will probably show another above-normal increase, according to analyst estimates.

Gas futures have rebounded 11 percent from a 34-month low on April 27 on the outlook for warmer-than-normal May weather and after a government report last week showed a smaller-than-expected supply gain. Speculators held a record net-short position in four benchmark gas contracts of 126,148 futures equivalent in the week ended April 27.

AccuWeather US Forecast Outlook:

Following a dip in temperature during the middle of the week, summerlike warmth will rebound across much of the Northeast by this weekend.

Clouds with showers and thunderstorms will take the edge off the warmth that surged in to start the week. The moisture is associated with a cool front that will stall and erode at midweek, resulting in only spotty rainfall.

However, Mother Nature will be turning up the thermostat a bit more starting late this week.

High pressure will build at most levels of the atmosphere late this week and into the weekend. The high will keep a budding tropical system at bay along the southern Atlantic coast. According to Meteorologist Ben Noll, “This will be a summer weather regime in much of the Northeast this weekend with temperatures 10-20 degrees above average for this time of the year.”

People will be able to ditch umbrellas and break out the sunglasses, shorts and short sleeves just like they did this past weekend and early this week.

Only northern New England will miss out on the warmth, relative to the rest of the region, due to more persistent clouds and spotty showers.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 6.49 on February 2014

Average: 3.307 over this period

Lowest: 1.902 on Apr 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)


  • Natural Gas Weekly Update
    Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
  • Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
    Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)




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