Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis, May 4-8, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas closed the week at 2.774 giving back some of Thursday’s gains, after the EIA weekly inventory release. The commodity has climbed from its bottom at 2.49. Weather forecasting agency MDA Weather Services published that weather across the US will be warmer than normal in the first two weeks of May. Warmer temperatures increase the cooling demand. As a result, the demand for electricity increases. The rise in electricity demand increases the demand for natural gas for gas powered electric power stations. The temperatures in Washington and New York are more than 13% above normal temperatures, according to AccuWeather sources.

Gas prices increased for the fourth time over the last ten trading sessions. Over the same period, prices increased by 0.21% more on the average up days than on the average down days. Natural gas had a stellar performance across all of the commodities in yesterday’s trade. In contrast, gas prices dropped 10.25% YTD.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended April 24 rose by 81 billion cubic feet, below expectations for an increase of 85 billion and following a build of 90 billion cubic feet in the preceding week.

Supplies rose by 77 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change is an increase of 55 billion cubic feet. forecast

This summer, warmth and dryness will build in the West, worsening the historical drought conditions that have plagued California for four straight years. Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast will have an abundance of moisture, raising concerns for flooding at times.

In the nation’s midsection, severe weather is forecast to continue into summer, with the overall tornado count increasing from last year. In the Northeast, above-normal temperatures will mark a noticeable difference from the cooler-than-average summer of 2014.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 6.49 on February 2014

Average: 3.307 over this period

Lowest: 1.902 on Apr 20, 2012


Economic Events: (GMT)


  • Natural Gas Weekly Update
    Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
  • Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
    Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)



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