NZD/USD Analysis Forecast For 22 May 2015

Analysis and Recommendation (NZD/USD Analysis Forecast 22 May):

The NZD/USD added 18 points to trade at 0.7326 on hopes that the Chinese will offer up additional stimulus after a lackluster print of the HSBC manufacturing PMI which printed in contraction lower than forecast.  The TWI, the broad measure of the currency favoured by the Reserve Bank, has declined 3.9 percent this year as the bank took interest rate hikes off the table, increased steps to try and curb Auckland house prices, and said it was monitoring conditions that could prompt it to cut rates amid low inflation, weak dairy prices and an elevated currency. Traders are pricing in a 42 percent chance that Governor Wheeler will reduce the 3.5 percent benchmark at the June 11 monetary policy statement.

Analysts are betting that Wheeler is likely to reduce interest rates in June because the quarterly MPS allows him a fuller chance to explain his decision at a press conference, compared with just a one-page statement at July’s official cash rate review. Still, he may hold off while signaling future interest rate cuts are likely, in an attempt to further weaken the currency.

The New Zealand Government releases its 2015 budget while migration data and credit card spending data for April are also published.

Weak Chinese readings feed concerns about cooling demand from the global powerhouse, but at the same time they often shore up Chinese stocks by fueling expectations that policymakers will roll out extra monetary stimulus.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for NZD/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI 49.1 49.3 48.9  

 NZDUSD(60 minutes)20150521064525

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for NZD/USD in forex trading:

Friday, May 22, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.3% 0.3%  
  JPY BoJ Press Conference        
  EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (May)   108.3 108.6  
  EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks        
  GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks        
  USD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)   0.2% 0.2%  
  CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)   0.2% 0.6%  
  CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)   0.4% 2.0%  
  GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks        
  EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks        
  USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks      

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May


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