NZD/USD Analysis Forecast, May 18, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (NZD/USD forecast):

The NZD/USD dipped 23 points to trade at 0.7477 after trading above the 75 price on Thursday. The US dollar corrected from its drop on the previous day.  The US dollar strengthened following its weakness after this week’s disappointing US retail sales, while the kiwi softened after jumping following better-than-expected first quarter retail sales data. The volume of sales rose a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent in the three months ended March 31, accelerating from a pace of 1.9 percent in the December quarter, government figures showed. That beat expectations and was a record gain; reducing speculation the Reserve Bank is set to cut interest rates through this year. The kiwi was making gains even ahead of the data, with weaker-than-expected US retail sales helping drive the US dollar index to a three-month low 93.461.

“We saw a little bit of US dollar strength last night and that took the gloss off the NZD/USD’s post-retail sales jump,” said Bancorp Treasury Services’ Peter Cavanaugh. The kiwi didn’t move much after the BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index for April showed the second monthly decline to a seasonally adjusted 51.8 from 54.6 in March.

The focus on Friday will be on the first US economic data releases for May, with traders keen to see if the world’s largest economy is recovering from a slower first quarter.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for NZD/USD in our weekly reports.

nzdusd  chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event
  JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for NZD/USD in forex trading:

Monday, May 18, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.3%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.7%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May



NZD/USD analysis forecast


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