NZD/USD Analysis Forecast, May 20, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (NZD/USD Analysis Forecast For 20 May):

The NZD/USD gained 12 points to trade at 0.7403 after trading above the 75 level after PPI data missed expectations.  Earlier the kiwi dipped but regained some momentum. The New Zealand dollar declined as the greenback strengthened on optimism the US economy will rebound after a weak first quarter, and as the kiwi is weighed down by expectations local interest rates will fall.

The US dollar index gained after a report said the US economy is probably not as weak as current estimates suggest, bolstering the argument for raising US interest rates.

The New Zealand dollar remains weak ahead of the Reserve Bank’s second quarter survey of inflation expectations, which is expected to strengthen the case for local interest rate cuts.

The RBNZ announced new measures to curb a rampant Auckland housing market, added to the Reserve Bank’s efforts, and could give the bank more room to cut interest rates. Traders are pricing in 48 basis points of cuts to the 3.5 percent official cash rate over the coming 12 months after the government said it will tighten up on the taxation of property speculators, adding to measures announced by the Reserve Bank last week that it will impose tougher lending requirements for investors in the Auckland housing market.

The kiwi has bounced around as traders mulled whether a reduction in Chinese interest rates was good or bad for New Zealand, whether the Reserve Bank still considered the local currency’s level as “unjustified”

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for NZD/USD in our weekly reports.

nzdusd chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1) -1.1% -0.7% -0.4%
  AUD Monetary Meeting Minutes
  NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 1.8%


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for NZD/USD in forex trading:

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4% 0.4%
  JPY GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.5% 1.5%
  AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -3.2%
  EUR German PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.1%
  GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
  CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.7% -0.4%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.191M
  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May



NZD/USD technical analysis forecast for 20 May


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