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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis, April 8, 2015 – Forecast

nzdusd tuesday bnsnlaAnalysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD dipped 10 points to trade at 0.7532 having little reaction to news that the Chinese had reduced their repo rate once again.  Traders are edgy ahead of the RBA decision due in a few hours.  China’s central bank lowered its guidance rate for the benchmark seven-day bond repurchase agreement by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.45 percent on Tuesday, traders said, the fourth time it has done so since the Lunar New Year holiday in February.

Glenn Stevens and the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision on interest rates is coming down to the wire. Markets are pricing in a 72 per cent chance of a cut on Tuesday afternoon, but more than half of economists surveyed believe the central bank will hold steady.

17 of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict rates will stay at 2.25 per cent in April, but a strong conviction either way seems to be lacking, with almost unanimous agreement that the RBA will cut rates today or at next month’s meeting.

The kiwi dollar surged in the US on Friday after Department of Labor figures showed the world’s biggest economy added 126,000 jobs in March, well below expectations of a 245,000 increase and the weakest since the end of 2013. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5 percent. Still, in trading today, the kiwi gave up much of its gains against the greenback.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

Retail Sales (Feb)

0.7%

0.4%

0.5%

   

  AUD

Interest Rate Decision

 

2.25%

2.25%

 

 

  AUD

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

   

 NZDUSD(15 minutes)20150407063407

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Cur.

Event

 

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

Adjusted Current Account

 

0.61T

1.06T

 

 

  EUR

German Factory Orders

 

1.5%

-3.9%

 

 

  JPY

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

 

-0.2%

1.1%

 

 

  USD

FOMC Member Dudley

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Apr 08 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Apr 08 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Mar 2017 Schatz

Apr 08 11:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Gilt

Apr 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Apr

Apr 08 19:00 US Auctions 10-yr Notes

Apr 09 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Apr 09 19:00 US Auctions 30-yr Bonds

 

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