NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 11, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (NZD/USD Forecast):

The NZD/USD dipped 16 points after the release of Chinese trade numbers with both imports and exports declining in April.  The US dollar gained a bit of momentum which is also weighing on the kiwi.  Official data released this morning showed trade balance shrinking to $3.1 billion compared to an estimated $43.4 billion and February’s $60.6 billion. This was a 95 percent decline, and its lowest since a year ago. Exports slipped 14.6 percent from a year ago, with weak global demand and the impact of the lunar New Year as factors behind the decline.

In other news, the World Bank today estimated that Chinese economic growth could slow from 7.4 per cent to 7.1 per cent in 2015 and 7 per cent in 2016, down from earlier estimates of 7.2 percent and 7.1 percent.

Both the Aussie and kiwi dollars were hit hard overnight following the release of weaker than expected Chinese trade balance. It showed that March’s trade surplus was $3.08billion vs. expectations for $40.1billion.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  CNY Trade Balance (Apr) 34.13B 39.45B 3.08B
  USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 224K 126K
  USD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 5.4% 5.5%

 nzdusd fri

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 11, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Russia – Victory Day
  AUD NAB Business Confidence (Apr) 3
  GBP BoE QE Total (May) 375B
  GBP Interest Rate Decision (May) 0.50% 0.50%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt


NZD/USD Exchange Rate

Leave a Comment