NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (NZD/USD Forecast):

The NZD/USD is trading at 0.7375 declining by 120 points in the morning session in response to the weekend move by the Peoples Bank of China. The Bank reduced interest rates by 25 bps in an unexpected moved. The announcement stressed kiwi traders as it indicates that the Chinese economy is having a much more difficult time than expected.  The New Zealand dollar may decline this week as more economists bet that the Reserve Bank will start cutting interest rates as early as next month.

The kiwi may trade between 72 US cents and 77 cents this week, according to a BusinessDesk survey of 12 currency advisers.

The New Zealand dollar has dropped 2.5 per cent so far this month after the Reserve Bank signalled in late April that interest rate hikes were off the table and it was watching conditions that could prompt a rate cut. The central bank urged the government to consider measures to contain Auckland’s bubbling housing market as it monitors weak inflation, an elevated local currency and falling dairy prices.

ANZ Bank today joined Deutsche Bank and ASB Bank in forecasting 50 basis points of cuts over coming months.

The People’s Bank of China cut interest rates for the third time in six months in a bid to lower companies’ borrowing costs and bolster the world’s second-largest slowing economy.

In New Zealand the government releases its March financial statements and electronic card transaction data for April is published.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information about NZD/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% 1.2%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.369%

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 3.2%
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% 1.2%
  GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% 0.1%
  GBP Manufacturing Production 0.3% 0.4%
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) 5.085M 5.133M
  USD Federal Budget Balance (Apr) 146.5B -53.0B

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

NZD/USD Forecast 2015



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