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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis May 5, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD fell 17 points as Chinese data missed forecast showing an ongoing economic slowdown in the mighty giant, which is one of New Zealand’s major trading partners.  The final Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC was at 48.9, missing the median estimate of 49.4 in a Bloomberg News survey and lower than the preliminary reading of 49.2. Numbers below 50 indicate contraction.

With economic expansion threatening to dip below the leadership’s 2015 target of about 7 percent — one state-affiliated group reportedly sees a 6.8 percent pace this quarter — officials have already loosened monetary policy. Anticipation of more measures to come has helped stoke a rally in stocks the past two months.

The kiwi dropped 2 percent since New Zealand’s Reserve Bank took interest rate hikes off the table at its review last Thursday. It may fall further this week, weighed down by weaker prices for New Zealand’s largest export commodity, with prices expected to decline in Wednesday morning’s GlobalDairyTrade auction. Meanwhile the greenback is picked to strengthen leading in to a key US jobs report on Friday.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday
  CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.9 49.4 49.2
  EUR German Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.9

 nzdusd monday

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Interest Rate Decision (May) 2.00% 2.25%
  GBP Construction PMI (Apr) 57.5 57.8
  USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.5 56.5

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

May 06 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 06 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 07 11:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Ma

 

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