Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD fell 17 points as Chinese data missed forecast showing an ongoing economic slowdown in the mighty giant, which is one of New Zealand’s major trading partners. The final Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC was at 48.9, missing the median estimate of 49.4 in a Bloomberg News survey and lower than the preliminary reading of 49.2. Numbers below 50 indicate contraction.
With economic expansion threatening to dip below the leadership’s 2015 target of about 7 percent — one state-affiliated group reportedly sees a 6.8 percent pace this quarter — officials have already loosened monetary policy. Anticipation of more measures to come has helped stoke a rally in stocks the past two months.
The kiwi dropped 2 percent since New Zealand’s Reserve Bank took interest rate hikes off the table at its review last Thursday. It may fall further this week, weighed down by weaker prices for New Zealand’s largest export commodity, with prices expected to decline in Wednesday morning’s GlobalDairyTrade auction. Meanwhile the greenback is picked to strengthen leading in to a key US jobs report on Friday.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday|
|CNY||HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Apr)||48.9||49.4||49.2|
|EUR||German Manufacturing PMI||51.9||51.9|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, May 5, 2015
|AUD||Interest Rate Decision (May)||2.00%||2.25%|
|GBP||Construction PMI (Apr)||57.5||57.8|
|USD||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||56.5||56.5|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 05 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
May 06 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 06 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz
May 07 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 07 11:10 France Auctions OATs
May 07 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction
May 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May
May 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Ma