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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 6, 2015 – Forecast

nzdusd tuesday bnsnlaAnalysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD  gained 10 points to trade at 0.7548 as traders wait for the RBA decision due in just a short while. While consensus is that the RBA will reduce interest rates by 25bps. The US dollar continued to gain but remains well below its medium range in April.  The local focus today is on the RBA’s interest rate decision, where traders are pricing in a 75 percent chance of a rate cut, after the bank unexpectedly kept the benchmark on hold at last month’s meeting. Still, a minority are betting the RBA could remain on hold on concern that pushing the benchmark rate to a record low 2 percent could further fuel a bubbling housing market.

The U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies on Monday after Federal Reserve official lowered expectations for the first Fed rate hike this year. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said on Monday that the weak first-quarter economic data made him find it probably won’t be appropriate for the central bank to begin lifting interest rates until “sometime in early 2016.”

A rate hike is expected to boost the dollar by driving investment flows into the United States.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Mar)

-1.322B

-1.000B

-1.609B

   

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 

2.00%

2.25%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

   

 NZDUSD(15 minutes)20150505063658

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.8%

1.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

 

0.4%

0.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Apr)

 

58.5

58.9

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment

 

200K

189K

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Apr)

 

49.2

47.9

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 09:15 Austria Eur 1.1bn 3.5% Sep 2021

May 06 09:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 3.5% Jun 2022

May 06 09:10 Greece Eur 0.875bn 6 month (Nov 2015) T-bills

May 06 09:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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