NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 8, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (NZD/USD Forecast):

The NZD/USD added 10 pips on Thursday morning to trade at 0.7506 as sentiment shifted towards commodity currencies as investors moved away from the equities markets after Janet Yellen’s speech on Monday.  The hopes of stimulus programs in China have sparked increased interest in Asian currencies.  China’s central bank is considering lending to policy banks through a new tool so they can buy bonds issued by local governments, a person close to the regulator says. The Ministry of Finance has said local governments can issue 1 trillion yuan ($160 billion) worth of bonds this year to repay their old debts — in other words allowing them to swap existing debts, which are mostly bank loans, for bonds that have longer maturities and cost less.

The kiwi dropped on Wednesday after data showed annual wage inflation in the private sector slowed to a 0.3 percent pace in the three months ended March 31 and was unchanged on an annual basis at a 1.8 percent rate, lagging behind expectations for wages to increase at a faster pace. That prompted traders to price in a 28 percent chance the Reserve Bank will cut rates at its next meeting, and bet the benchmark will be cut by 38 basis points over the coming year, according to the Overnight Index Swap Curve.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Employment Change (Apr) -2.9K 5.0K 48.2K
  AUD Full Employment Change (Apr) -21.9K 41.3K
  AUD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 6.2% 6.2% 6.1%

 nzdusd thurs

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 8, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  CNY Trade Balance (Apr) 39.45B 3.08B
  USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 224K 126K
  USD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 5.4% 5.5%
  CAD Employment Change (Apr) -5.0K 28.7K

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

nzd usd forecast 2015

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