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NZD/USD Weekly Analysis Forecast – June 15-19, 2015 – Forecast

nzdusd weekly bnsnlaWeekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD  fell below the psychological level of 70 to trade at 0.6987 after the reserve bank surprised traders dropping interest rates to 3.25% while diary prices continued to fall. Lackluster Chinese data also weighed on the commodity currency.  The New Zealand dollar tumbled yesterday after Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent. The market was divided ahead of the move on whether Wheeler was likely to reduce rates as early as this month’s meeting with just six of 16 economists predicting the move. Now the easing cycle has begun, speculation is turning to how many more cuts Wheeler may have planned.

“Now the bank has chosen to start an easing cycle, we do not believe yesterday’s cut will be a ‘one off’,” Kimberly Martin, senior market strategist at Bank of New Zealand, said in a note. “We expect a follow up cut at the next meeting in July and see around a 50 percent chance of a further cut in September.

New Zealand manufacturing activity declined for a third straight month in May, while remaining in expansion, as production slipped into contraction.

The BNZ-BusinessNZ performance of manufacturing index fell to a seasonally adjusted 51.5 from 51.7 in April. The weakest component was production, which dipped to 48.4 from 51.8 in April, and below the 50 level which signals expansion.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

Monday, June 15, 2015

 

  RUB

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

11.50%

12.50%

 

 

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic

 

37.1

41.9

 

 

 

  USD

 

Building Permits (May)

 

1.100M

1.140M

 

 

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (May)

 

-12.5K

-12.6K

 

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Interest Rate Decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, June 18, 2015

 

  NZD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

 

0.8%

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

1.2%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Philadelphia Fed

 

8.0

6.7

 

 

Friday, June 19, 2015

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.3%

0.1%

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.3%

0.5%

   

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 15 00:00 UK New 30 year I/L syndicated Gilt auction

Jun 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 17 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

Jun 18 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligations

Jun 18 11:10 France Auctions BTANs

Jun 18 12:10 France Auctions OATi

Jun 18 17:00 US Details 2-year FRNs

Jun 18 17:00 US Announces details of 2/5/7 year notes

Jun 18 18:00 US Auctions 30-year TIPs sale on 24 Jun

NZD/USD analysis forecast

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